Another poll has come out showing the presidential race deadlocked here in Pennsylvania.
The Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris knotted up at 48% each. The survey interviewed 1,000 likely voters on Sept. 27-28.
This is at least the 10th poll here that’s showed a hard tie, as I call it.
In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania with 48.6% of the vote; in 2020, he took 48.8% of the vote but lost. More third-party and independent candidates were on the ballot in 2016, which helped him win the state that year.
The winner here this time around will likely be the first candidate to get 49.5% or more of the vote. So which candidate is best situated to squeeze out that final 1.5%?
The Emerson/RealClearPennsylvania poll reveals that 49% of voters have a favorable opinion of Harris, while 47.5% say the same about Trump. Voters are more likely to vote for a candidate they view in a favorable light, so that’s advantage Harris.
The state’s other high-profile race is close, too. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. leads Republican Dave McCormick by a narrow 47-45.5% margin, well within the poll’s margin of error. Any time an incumbent is running below 50%, they are in the danger zone.
Will Pennsylvania voters buck the recent trend and split their votes at the top of the ticket? It’s becoming rare for states to elect a president of one party and a senator of the other — increasingly, it’s all or nothing. Recently, only Republican U.S. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine bucked that trend, winning reelection in 2020 while Joe Biden also won there.
Like most Democratic candidates, Casey leads among female voters, now by a 52-41% margin. Conversely, like most Republican candidates, Dave McCormick leads among male voters, now with a 50-42% edge.
Casey has won his three previous U.S. Senate races by comfortable margins, but this looks to be his toughest challenge to date. He has held statewide office since 1996, when he was elected auditor general. McCormick ran unsuccessfully in the 2022 GOP Senate primary, finishing second.
Tonight, ABC27 in Harrisburg is hosting the only debate for the Senate contest. It could be significant.
Independent voters say that Trump would be better for their personal finances by a 50-38% margin. Since the top issue for all voters remains the economy, that’s advantage Trump.
The next most important issue to voters is threats to democracy, followed by immigration.
Pennsylvania is on a razor’s edge in both the presidential and Senate races.
(Christopher Nicholas is a veteran GOP political consultant, president at Eagle Consulting Group and author of the PA Political Digest newsletter.)
