It appears that good news keeps coming for Pennsylvania’s Republicans.

Recently released data reveal a subtle but significant trend: Republicans are embracing mail-In balloting at levels not seen before, while Democrats, though still dominant, show signs of plateauing.

This shift, as the 2025 Primary Election approaches, merits attention for what it suggests about the Commonwealth’s electoral future.

Let’s begin with the headline number.

Republicans now make up 26% of mail-in ballot applications — a record high for the party in Pennsylvania – compared to Democrats, who still lead with over two-thirds of the total.

Since mail-in voting began under Act 77 in 2019, Democrats have dominated this method, making the GOP’s gains notable.

Yet the raw number of Democratic applications may be dipping to its lowest point ever at this stage. It’s a figure that will surely rise as the primary nears, but projections suggest it may fall short of the three-year average of nearly 650,000 Democratic applications ahead of past primaries.

This isn’t a seismic upheaval. Democrats remain the heavyweight in mail-in balloting, a preference rooted in strategy and turnout efforts honed over multiple cycles.

The numbers tell a story of adaptation. Republicans, historically reliant on Election Day turnout, have faced pressure to diversify their approach since 2020, when mail-in voting surged amid the pandemic.

Though GOP skepticism about mail-in voting — once driven by security and process concerns — lingers, the data show a pragmatic shift. Their share of applications has risen over 20% since 2021, reaching 26% — far from Democratic levels, but a clear sign that Republican voters and organizers are adapting.

If this trend holds, Primary Day 2025 — traditionally the election with the lowest turnout every four years — could see Republican mail-in applications nearing parity with their 2024 presidential election highs, a milestone that would have seemed improbable just a few years ago.

For Democrats, the dip in applications — potentially the lowest at this stage in recent cycles — raises questions about turnout strategy or voter fatigue, though it’s too soon to sound alarms.

The coming weeks will reveal whether this is a blip or a shift in behavior.

What does this mean for Pennsylvania? The state remains a battleground, its elections a microcosm of national divides.

Pennsylvania’s Democratic voter registration edge — once over 1 million in 2008 — has shrunk to under 100,000, and by November, Republicans could claim a majority.

Mail-in voting trends may amplify this shift, reshaping how both parties compete in this perennial battleground. As evidenced by the GOP’s recent weak turnout in special elections across the country, a focus on mail-in balloting has a new urgency as it may be the solution the Democrats never had when their coalition included the working class who vote infrequently.

The recent Democratic upset victory in the Lancaster County state Senate special election underscores this point: Democratic voters are energized in 2025, capable of mobilizing when it counts.

Mail-in voting, once a flashpoint, is settling into a new normal where both parties, in their own ways, are staking a claim.

Republicans’ gradual embrace could level the playing field in future contests. Democrats, for their part, retain an edge but must guard against erosion in a system they’ve clearly mastered.

The data are a snapshot — clear but incomplete.

They point to a Republican Party finding its footing in unfamiliar terrain and a Democratic base still formidable, if slightly less prolific on paper.

But the GOP’s growing adoption of mail-in balloting suggests a recalibration — a recognition, perhaps, that dismissing this voting method is no longer tenable in a state where elections are won on margins.

The GOP must commit whatever resources necessary to utilize mail-in balloting as a tool to turn out working class voters. Otherwise, the nascent MAGA agenda will cease to be represented in Washington and state Capitols across the country before it even gets off the ground.

For now, the mail-in ballot story is one of incremental change, not revolution — a quiet adjustment in how Pennsylvanians choose to cast their ballots, and in how the parties vie for their voices.

Athan Koutsiouroumbas is a managing director at Long Nyquist and Associates and a former congressional chief of staff.)