HARRISBURG (INS) – The 2026 election for Pennsylvania governor might seem a long way off, but the jockeying among Republicans who may seek to challenge Gov. Josh Shapiro has already started.

So far, there are four GOP stalwarts pondering a possible challenge to the incumbent Democratic governor:

■ U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser of Luzerne County, a former Pennsylvania Secretary of Revenue.

■ Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a Bradford County native and decorated U.S. Army Reserve veteran.

■ State Sen. Scott Martin of Lancaster County, chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

■ State Sen. Doug Mastriano of Franklin County, who lost to Shapiro by 15 points in November 2022.

Shapiro, whose campaign declined to comment, has remained popular among Pennsylvanians as his national profile has soared. A recent Morning Consult poll had Shapiro’s approval rating in the state at 59%.

In speeches at the recent Pennsylvania Leadership Conference (PLC), a gathering of state Republicans, Meuser and Garrity touted their support for Trump’s agenda and touched on their visions for Pennsylvania.

‘I believe Pennsylvania is heading in the wrong direction,’ said Meuser in a video of his speech posted on X.

Later, he said, ‘We need a Pennsylvania First agenda,’ echoing Trump’s America First motto.

During an interview at the conference with Human Events Daily, Garrity — who set a record in November for winning the most votes in a statewide election — said she has worked with the Shapiro administration on cutting spending, but that more could be done ‘if we had the right person in the governor’s mansion.’

Garrity also lamented crime in Philadelphia [although statistics show violent crime is down in the city], lagging statewide student test scores and regulations hindering energy production. ‘We’re at a crossroads, something has to give,’ she said.

Pennsylvania has never had a female governor.

Garrity received the most support in a straw poll among the GOP conference attendees when asked about their pick for a governor candidate, reported The Philadelphia Inquirer.

With 41%, Garrity easily outpaced Meuser (9%), Mastriano (6%), and Martin and York County state Sen. Kristin Phillips-Hill (2% each).

Mastriano has remained active on social media and in conservative media circles after his disastrous 2022 campaign that had some Republicans distancing themselves from the far-right state senator.

In late February, Mastriano told WGAL-TV that he’s eyeing a potential second shot at the governor’s seat and learned some ‘hard lessons’ from the 2022 campaign.

‘The movement is there,’ Mastriano said, referring to the momentum Republicans took from Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania last year and Dave McCormick’s upset win over longtime Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Martin, who briefly ran for governor in the 2022 primary before suffering a broken leg and dropping out, told LancasterOnline.com last week he was mulling over a campaign for governor.

‘I’m not ever going to get ahead of my family or something like that, either, but people are talking to me about it,’ Martin said.

SHAPIRO A FORMIDABLE CANDIDATE

While Republicans might be buoyed by last year’s election results, Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, said two factors might dampen that enthusiasm — Shapiro’s political chops and an expected down year in midterms for the president’s party.

Shapiro, a former attorney general, has won three statewide races, is popular with voters and will be well-funded, making him ‘as formidable as it gets for Republicans to knock off,’ said Borick. ‘He’s far from an easy out.’

Timing is the other consideration for Republican hopefuls, said Borick.

‘Not only is it what the match-up looks like in terms of your opponent, it’s what the cycle looks like,’ he said. ‘There is every bit of evidence out there that this cycle is more likely to be problematic for Republicans.’ Midterms are typically a down year in Pennsylvania for the party that holds the White House, he said, but 2026 could be especially bad if voter anger over the impact of Trump’s economic policies, such as tariffs, continues and a recession hits.

‘If I’m a Republican and I have an up-and-coming record and I’m thinking, ‘Yeah, I might want to be governor,’ there are a lot of things that make me think that 2026 is not the best time to be making that run,’ said Borick.

Not only are people buzzing about would-be challengers, but the conservative Commonwealth Partners, based in Harrisburg, has also taken out billboards needling Shapiro, including one on Route 34 near Carlisle that reads, ‘Gov. Shapiro promised safer communities. DO YOU FEEL SAFER?’

Matthew Brouillette, president and CEO of the Commonwealth Partners Chamber of Entrepreneurs, said Shapiro has fallen short of his administration’s promotion featuring a certain four-letter word: Get Sh— Done.

‘Governor Shapiro talks like a tough guy with his GSD narrative,’ said Brouillette. ‘The reality is, he hasn’t done much at all, but because he’s more interested in getting to Pennsylvania Avenue than truly helping Pennsylvania, we want people to know about his unfulfilled and broken campaign promises.’

Brouilette’s comments about ‘Pennsylvania Avenue’ referenced Shapiro being championed as a possible 2028 White House contender. He was a finalist to be Kamala Harris’ vice-presidential pick last year.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was eventually chosen by Harris, but the dalliance with national politics raised Shapiro’s profile across the country.

Shapiro, though, has beefed up his resume in the past two years by leading the response to getting 1-95 reopened in record time following a 2023 truck crash and fire in Philadelphia, streamlining the state’s licensing and permitting process for businesses, railing against the impact Trump’s tariffs would have on Pennsylvania consumers and companies, and, lately, taking the Trump administration to court over canceled federal funding that was already approved for the state.

First, Shapiro successfully fought for the Trump administration to unfreeze $2.1 billion in allocated funds, and he’s joined lawsuits seeking the release of millions in health funding and pandemic-relief funding. Shapiro has enjoyed a considerable amount of cable airtime, including a full 10 minutes on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher in March where Maher tried to get Shapiro to admit he was running in 2028. Shapiro didn’t bite, but he did get an extended infomercial on his accomplishments in Pennsylvania.

An Overton Insights national presidential poll of 1,200 registered voters taken in late March had Shapiro receiving 9% of the vote from Democrats and independents in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary.

Former Vice President Harris received 48% in that poll, followed by U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York City with 15%, California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 10%, Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 6%.

Borick said Shapiro’s flirtation with national politics would likely not be much of a hurdle in the 2026 governor’s race.

‘It’s a minor liability for Shapiro and he’ll have to be attentive to that, but I don’t think that’s something that’ll derail his campaign by any means, unless it looks like he’s totally looking past it,’ said Borick, ‘and I don’t think that’s the kind of candidate Josh Shapiro has ever been.’