As we approach the midpoint of winter, many wonder what the long-term forecast has to say about winter’s upcoming second half.
Fortunately, Punxsutawney Phil — Seers of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators and Weather-Prophet Extraordinaire — will, next Sunday, according to legend that dates back hundreds of years, make his forecast for six more weeks of winter or early spring.
According to NOAA the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Phil’s forecast has been correct only about 30% of the time. Records kept by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club since the 1880s show that Phil has predicted 108 longer winters and only 21 early spring seasons. Last year he predicted an early spring.
Historically Groundhog Day has its origins with German immigrants who would select an animal to predict the winter season. If the hedgehog, later the groundhog, saw its shadow Feb. 2, winter would continue. If he did not see his shadow, then we would have an early spring.
The most popular traditional ceremony for weather prediction is in Punxsutawney. The news was first reported by the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper in 1886. In 1887 the first Groundhog Day was made official at Gobbler’s Knob, where those in charge consulted with Phil. People have gathered there annually ever since.
Yearly, crowds of as many as 2,000 meet to hear Phil’s prediction. After the 1993 film “Groundhog Day,” attendance at Gobbler’s Knob had risen to as many as 10,000.
Many communities have similar ceremonies featuring a groundhog who predicts the weather. The Ryan family groundhog, Big Shanty Bob, has been predicting the weather for the Bingham, Mount Alton and Lafayette area for several years. Bob went to his heavenly reward after a summer nibbling on Mount Alton vegetable gardens. He always predicts 6 more weeks of winter because, he says, in McKean County that is an early spring.
What will Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction be this year?
(Rebecca Ryan is a lifelong resident of and gardener in the Bradford area. She retired from teaching at Bradford Area School District.)
