HARRISBURG (TNS) — At least 12 times in 2021 and early 2022, Pennsylvanians heard about a different Republican who wanted to be governor, among them two former members of Congress, a surgeon, a former U.S. attorney, an HVAC company owner and three state senators.
Democrats talked seriously about only one person, Attorney General Josh Shapiro, and things didn’t end well for Republicans. On Nov. 8, 2022, the winner of the nine-way Republican primary election battle — state Sen. Doug Mastriano — was trounced by Shapiro in a 56%-to-42% general election vote.
Republicans say there won’t be a repeat.
With the 2026 gubernatorial campaign approaching, several with standing in the party described a much different vibe. In 2022, there was no party endorsement of a candidate, and the primary turned into what one prominent southeastern Pennsylvania Republican called a “circular firing squad.”
Another Republican — one who was on the nine-candidate primary ballot — was former congresswoman Melissa Hart, now an attorney at an Allegheny County firm. “The party made a very large mistake when they didn’t endorse,” Hart said. “That kept a wide variety of people in the primary.”
Former Republican state Rep. Rob Mercuri of Allegheny County, who made an unsuccessful bid for a seat in Congress last year, said Pennsylvanians in the coming two years will see “a much more unified and strategic effort to contest Gov. Shapiro and the governor’s race.”
Barring a dramatic development, Shapiro appears to have a virtual lock on his party’s endorsement. Polls show he is popular, he has become a national Democratic figure, and he just missed being chosen as running mate to his party’s 2024 presidential candidate. The Cook Political Report also has the Pennsylvania governor’s race leaning Democrat.
Nonetheless, Pennsylvania Republicans are fired up by their strong showing in both national and state elections last year. And they speak with optimism about two people already being mentioned as potential gubernatorial candidates.
U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser, a six-year congressman and former state Revenue secretary, told the Post-Gazette he is “very much considering” a run for governor. And state Treasurer Stacy Garrity is fresh off a successful re-election where she logged more votes than any row office candidate in at least 20 years.
Congressman Dan Meuser (PA-09) told the Post-Gazette he is “very much considering” a run for governor in 2026.Congressman Dan Meuser (PA-09) told the Post-Gazette he is “very much considering” a run for governor in 2026.(Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Garrity responded to a question about a potential run for governor by noting she hasn’t even been sworn in for her second term as treasurer yet.
Her words, though, hint she might not shun a larger role: “I really want to continue building bipartisan relationships across the state, so I will work with anyone who wants to make Pennsylvania a better place to live, work and raise a family.”
In an interview, Joe Gale, a former Montgomery County commissioner who was part of the packed 2022 Republican field, told the Post-Gazette he is once again interested. He called himself a “Trump-like” potential candidate, but in 2023 he lost a bid to get re-elected county commissioner.
Republicans in 2024 swept the races for state row offices, often a source for gubernatorial candidates. Besides Garrity’s re-election, York County District Attorney Dave Sunday defeated a Democrat to win the attorney general’s post, while Timothy DeFoor was re-elected auditor general.
Neither man is interested in climbing higher, right now.
A political spokesperson for Sunday, Ben Wren, said, “His status for 2026 is he will be serving as attorney general and he has no plans to do otherwise.” DeFoor told the Post-Gazette he liked his current job and “I am not going to run in 2026, nor am I interested.”
The 2026 Pennsylvania primary is May 19, about 16 months hence. Chris Borick, a pollster and political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown in Lehigh County, said modern political campaigns have become longer because of the needs of fundraising needs and name recognition.
“There has been increasing pressure to get out there and do that early,” he said.
In the 2021-2022 campaign, at least 10 Republicans announced as candidates by the end of 2021. One was former Sen. Jake Corman, then the Senate president pro tempore.
Corman, who left the Legislature near the end of 2022, said in an interview that he believed at the time his candidacy might serve to “narrow the field” if support coalesced around someone with his experience.
“Didn’t happen,” he said.
Corman said Republicans “will have their hands full with Governor Shapiro” in 2026. The governor has so far come through the bumpy process of working with a divided Legislature fairly well, according to Corman.
“He shows up. And, he has made a lot of good moves,” he said.
Shapiro has won elections as county commissioner, state representative, attorney general and governor. Many Democrats believe he is positioned well for 2026.
State Rep. Chris Pielli, a Chester County Democrat, said Shapiro’s success working with the divided Legislature has shown him to be “a leader for all Pennsylvanians.” Lori McFarland, chairperson of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee, said Shapiro looks “really strong” right now.
The pollster, Borick, noted that even while Democrats struggled in the fall of 2024, Shapiro didn’t. He goes into 2026 with the advantage of incumbency, national name recognition and the historically proven dynamic of pushback against the party in national power during a mid-term election.
Nonetheless, he said the Democratic-Shapiro position in is “not insurmountable.” Borick noted that Republicans should have fared better in 2022, midway through a national Democratic administration, but a U.S. Supreme Court ruling related to abortion changed the flow of political conversation.
Hart believes Shapiro will be more vulnerable than many people perceive. What she described as his thirst for higher office in the future, she said, is hurting the perception of him in Pennsylvania.
She cited Shapiro’s prominent role in a December press conference in Blair County on the arrest of Luigi Mangione, the man who has since been charged with the New York City murder of United HealthCare CEO Brian Thompson.
Hart said she was appalled.
“I am not really sure why he was there,” Hart said of Shapiro’s appearance at an event that she indicated should have focused on law enforcement. “I think there are a lot of people who noticed.”
