What would cause more heartache: losing four straight Super Bowls or losing to the same team in the playoffs four times in five years?
OK, probably still the Super Bowls, but you get my point, right? If these 2020s Bills are ever going to break through in the AFC, of course they would have to do it by going through the Chiefs. The Bills get their latest chance to break a seemingly never ending cycle on Sunday.
Every fan knows the drill by now: your team beats the Chiefs in October, November or December, but can they do it in January? Since Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen began playing for their teams in 2018, the Bills are 4-1 against the Chiefs in the regular season and 0-3 against them in the playoffs. Buffalo’s won four straight regular season games against Kansas City. And not a single Bills fan would hesitate in trading all four for a playoff win over them.
Peyton Manning didn’t beat Tom Brady in the playoffs until his third chance, winning the AFC Championship in 2007 on the way to Super Bowl XLI. Can Allen beat Mahomes in his fourth chance? The Chiefs, aiming for the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat, have seamlessly assumed the same dynastic, love-them-or-hate-them role of those Patriots. The Pistons bounced Michael Jordan from the playoffs three times before he and the Bulls overcame their boogeyman en route to winning the 1991 NBA title.
The AFC has other great quarterbacks, namely Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, (many more, frankly, than the NFC), but once again it will come down to Mahomes and Allen. They played in one previous AFC title game, in January 2021, a 38-24 blowout at Arrowhead. The next year came the “13 seconds” game, KC winning 42-36 in overtime in the Divisional Round; it felt like an AFC Championship, only for the Bengals to score the upset the next round. The playoff rivalry took a year off the following year as the Bengals routed a weary Bills team in Orchard Park before losing in KC. Last year, the Bills had home-field advantage in the Divisional but still fell on the losing end, 27-24.
Sooner or later, the Bills need to beat this team. You don’t really know how many more chances you’ll get. It’s been a long road back to the conference championship these last four years. Who knows how long it’ll be before the next one? It could be next year, or it could be a lot longer. I’m reminded of Lions coach Dan Campbell’s words of harsh reality after last year’s NFC Championship loss to the 49ers.
“I told those guys, ‘This may have been our only shot.’ Do I think that? No. Do I believe that? No,” Campbell said. “However, I know how hard it is to get here. I’m well aware. It’s gonna be twice as hard to get back to this point next year, than it was this year.”
Sure enough, the Lions, decimated by injuries, did not make it back to the conference championship despite an excellent regular season.
The Bills have relatively good health — for January, at least — but will be without a starting safety, Taylor Rapp. Cornerback Christian Benford is questionable in the concussion protocol and two other key defenders, Matt Milano and Taron Johnson, are banged up but practiced on Friday. They’re playing good, balanced football, not putting too much on Allen’s shoulders until they need it. The defense is coming up with well-timed big plays. They’re facing a KC team that, for all its winning of close games, has rarely been dominant this year.
When you have a quarterback as good as Allen, you’re never far from contention. And the Bills are set up nicely this offseason with salary cap flexibility to reload, regardless of what happens the next few weeks. But you still can’t assume anything.
Just look at how different the rosters of these two teams are since the last time they played in this round. Of the Bills’ starters in their last AFC Championship game, the only ones still on the roster are Allen, Dion Dawkins, Dawson Knox, Ed Oliver, Milano and Johnson (Micah Hyde, too, if you count the practice squad, but he won’t play this week). Tyler Bass, Reid Ferguson, A.J. Epenesa and Reggie Gilliam also played in the game. KC has even fewer starters from that title game still rostered: only Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones and Derrick Nnadi, with a half-dozen others who also played in the game.
For many players, this is the opportunity of a lifetime. Come 10 p.m. on Sunday, they’ll either be at the highest of highs or the lowest of lows.
“It’s either going to be a super celebration party, or me and a 24-pack by myself,” Bills right tackle Spencer Brown said this week. “Those are the two ends of the spectrum.”
And for many, many fans of drinking age, probably the same.
