BRADENTON, Fla. — The tough decisions for the Pirates seem to be dwindling.
Jared Triolo has separated himself at second base and should play most days there. Henry Davis’ performance and Yasmani Grandal’s lack of availability have charted a clear course at catcher. Their most likely outfield alignment will feature Michael A. Taylor in center, flanked by Jack Suwinski in left field and Bryan Reynolds in right.
But what about pitching, specifically the starting rotation?
Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales will form the Pirates’ top three, but they need to figure out the final two spots. Depending on what’s decided prior to next Thursday in Miami, it could also impact the front of the bullpen.
As for the candidates to consider …
Jared Jones, RHP, 22
Argument for: Have you seen him this spring? Regularly in the high-90s, maxing out at 101 mph, plus two breaking balls and an improved changeup. Hasn’t allowed an earned run in 11 1/3 innings, striking out 10 with a .132 batting average against.
Against: Not much, honestly. Should be an easy call. But the Pirates do have a history of … we’ll say going the conservative route with players in Jones’ position. His start Saturday should be fun.
Chase Anderson, RHP, 36
Argument for: Maybe the most unlikely entrant here, Anderson has also been excellent this spring — every bit as good as the Pirates could have hoped when they added him on a minor league deal at the start of camp: 2-0, 2.45 ERA in four games (one start), 11 innings, nine strikeouts, 0.73 WHIP.
Same as Jones, if you have two openings, you’re saying there’s a competition and two guys have pitched better than the rest, shouldn’t they win said competition?
Against: Anderson is a non-roster player and thus would need to be added. Shouldn’t be a big thing but still a step. It’s also fair to say Anderson has faced lesser competition. At the same time, there’s no harm in finding out if what we’re seeing is real.
Josh Fleming, LHP, 27
Argument for: We know lefties fair well at PNC Park. Fleming also has a terrific ground-ball rate (61.6% in 2023, 98th percentile), which means right-handed hitters pulling the ball at or near Ke’Bryan Hayes. Similar to Anderson, Fleming has pitched well this spring: 1-0, 4.22 ERA in six games (one start), 10 2/3 innings, nine strikeouts.
Against: Fleming has been better as a reliever in the big leagues — 6.10 ERA in 22 starts, 3.73 ERA in 33 games out of the bullpen. Small sample but still something.
Roansy Contreras, RHP, 24
Argument for: Tough to say Contreras belongs in their opening day rotation, but for the sake of argument, maybe it involves previously promising potential mixed with the dismissal of spring training results.
Against: He can’t throw strikes or find consistency. Nobody has walked more than Contreras’ 13 this spring, and his last outing came more than a week ago. His ERA is 6.57, his WHIP 2.11.
Contreras is out of minor league options, so you risk lose him by trying to send him to the minors. Maybe that’s OK at this point, or the Pirates shoehorn him into a bullpen role. But the rotation ship should’ve sailed.
Bailey Falter, LHP, 26
Argument for: Falter arrived at spring training feeling good about reworking his mechanics. The results have not matched: 8.03 ERA, 12 1/3 innings, four homers allowed, .345 batting average against.
That said, he was tremendous March 11 against Boston and has teased in similar ways before (3.86 ERA in ‘22). Like Contreras, he’s out of options.
Against: Fairly easy, see aforementioned results. The Pirates would be keeping Falter out of fear they might lose him, not because he has earned a job, which is a lousy way to do business.
Luis Ortiz, RHP, 25
Argument for: Ortiz has the best case to break up the Jones-Anderson couplet in this discussion, the result of a 3.00 ERA in four Grapefruit League outings (two starts) totaling 12 innings.
Ortiz’s slider has been sharp, leading to 15 strikeouts, while he has faced some of the tougher competition among those on this list.
Against: Even dating back to last year, Ortiz has been prone to periodic lapses in control, typically driven by inconsistent mechanics. It’s tough to feel much better about the possibility of that happening after just 12 innings. It’s not his fault, but Ortiz can also be optioned to Triple-A.
Quinn Priester, RHP, 23
Argument for: Similar to last season for Priester, there’s been a lot of ups and downs for him this spring. His outing March 15 against the Yankees (one earned run, 4 2/3 innings) was solid. Priester also pitched really well against the Phillies … until allowing a grand slam in the fourth inning.
His slider/cutter has missed bats, while Priester has shown signs of bringing his velocity back to the 94-95 mph range as opposed to 92-93 mph.
Against: There’s nothing the Pirates have to do, as Priester also has options. Furthermore, has the 2019 first-round pick (5.87 ERA this spring) done more than Jones, Anderson, Fleming or Ortiz to warrant inclusion? Don’t write off Priester, but it’s also OK to send him to the minors and expect him to work his way back.
Conclusion
The Pirates didn’t do as much as they should have — or wanted to — this winter to address the starting rotation. They also sent Paul Skenes to the minors. Don’t complete the fan frustration hat trick.
Jones has earned the chance, and the Pirates should honor that. As for the fifth spot, it could wind up being a combination of guys.
Assuming Colin Holderman and Carmen Mlodzinski — who haven’t pitched in more than a week — have just been sick, there are three available bullpen spots.
Brent Honeywell Jr. has pitched well and might wind up with one of those. Jose Hernandez is in the mix, too.
But whomever doesn’t make the starting rotation could still get work in relief as a way to preserve a roster spot or if the Pirates want to regularly employ an opener. We’ll know soon enough.