GREENVILLE — Community leaders and elected officials discussed rural Pennsylvania’s projected population change during a public hearing Wednesday at Thiel College and streamed live online.
The Center for Rural Pennsylvania, a bipartisan legislative agency resource for rural policy within the General Assembly, in October released its population projections for the Commonwealth through 2050.
A press release from the center indicated that by 2050 the population in rural counties is expected to shrink by 5.8%. Additionally, the total growth rate for all of Pennsylvania during the next 30 years will be less than what it was between 2010 and 2020. In that decade, the commonwealth’s population grew at a rate of 2.4%. Between 2020 and 2050, projections suggest an overall growth rate of just 1.6%.
Furthermore, the overall population of the commonwealth is expected to slightly decline between 2040 and 2050 by minus 0.2%.
State Sen. Gene Yaw of Lycoming County, chairman of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania Board of Directors, said Wednesday, “This can be described two ways: You can either look at this population study as being very scary or look at it as an opportunity. I can tell from the number of people that are here that it has people’s attention.”
The data examined age and gender cohorts for each county through the year of 2050. Changes in Pennsylvania’s population will affect a range of policy issues, including workforce availability, housing, health care, education, transportation and agriculture.
The center’s vice chair, Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski of Luzerne County, said at a press conference when the projections were released, “Given the wide range of policies that are implicated by population change, long-term planning that incorporates the expertise of a variety of stakeholders — including state and local officials, nonprofit groups, business and industry leaders, among others — will ensure that the Commonwealth is prepared for these changes, and that our rural communities remain resilient in the coming decades.”
Members of the center’s board of directors, including University of Pittsburgh at Bradford President Rick Esch, and other representatives heard from four panels of those stakeholders Wednesday. The morning’s second panel comprised McKean County Commissioner Tom Kreiner; Kate Brock, executive director of the Community Education Center of Elk and Cameron Counties, and Leadership Elk and Cameron; and Chip Abramovic, Venango County commissioner and board chair of the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania.
For his part, Kreiner said, “There are three things young couples look for in a place to live: healthcare — functional hospitals — strong schools and available and affordable housing.
“At the other end of the spectrum, the elderly want to stay in their communities and their homes if at all possible.”
Kreiner said the projected 8% decline McKean County faces means a reduction to about 37,000 people when the county population once approached 45,000.
“How do you help prevent that, and keep young people at home?” Kreiner said, adding an educational process to enter trades, like the Seneca Highlands Career and Technical Center in Port Allegany, is a good start.
“In years past, my generation is proof that we pushed everyone to have a bachelor’s degree and we’re seeing the fallout of that. We have to get back into these trades, which are good-paying jobs,” Kreiner stated.
Addressing the declining number of professionals — “a once robust bar association has dwindled drastically” — securing internet for all, leveraging tourism for economic development and more user-friendly grant application processes is needed, Kreiner said.
Brock said, “We know through recent surveys we have done that nearly 60 percent of youth like living in their rural areas. Nearly a quarter are likely to stay or return and 40 percent are unsure. How do we get to that 40 percent?
“Rural communities should be focusing engagement on these youth early and often.”
She said participants in community-based leadership programs like hers often declare it is much easier to facilitate change in their communities than they ever thought possible.
“Getting youth outside the school walls helps them make an impact they can see. It gives them purpose, confidence and self-esteem and can improve their overall mental health,” she continued. “Youth want to be involved in their community, we just have to show them how.
“People young and old have the ability to improve where they live, work and play. They are the ones who will make the informed decisions, become community champions helping to solve problems and staying in our communities.”
The 10 panelists spoke at length — for several hours — about the issues facing rural Pennsylvania from their various perspectives, but one theme persisted: Access and retention.
Namely, access to broadband for literally everyone and at competitive speeds, to quality healthcare and education, to housing services, to child care and to federal funding. And retention of the residents and businesses already here.
Mark Critz, western regional director of the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture and executive director of the Rural Development Council, said, “Broadband has become virtually a utility. Every level of government requires their constituents to go online to find things, industry certainly is moving that way; if you want to work and sell in this world, you have to be connected.”
State Sen. Michele Brooks of Mercer County said, “Healthcare is the cornerstone, the very foundation, of every community. Not just healthcare, but quality healthcare — and there is a difference.”
Rod Wilt, executive director of the Penn-Northwest Development Corp., spoke about Mercer County’s Homegrown Initiative of young adult volunteers building careers there, essentially “marketing Mercer County to Mercer County.
“Young people don’t really know what our communities offer. Children as young as 10 are starting to think about how they fit in their community and whether they want to stay.
“For generations we’ve told them, ‘You gotta get out of here if you want to get ahead.’ That needs to stop,” Wilt declared. “We have to tell everyone who will listen, that message does not apply anymore.”
