(TNS) — Though state House candidates won’t start filing nominating petitions for a couple more weeks, the 2024 election battle for control of the Pennsylvania chamber — currently tied at 101-101 — already looks like it will be a steel cage affair.
“Pennsylvania is one of our top targets,” Abhi Rahman, spokesman for the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said Thursday.
DLCC last month announced an initial investment of $30,000 into Pennsylvania House races, and Rahman said Thursday the spending would be governed by the attempt “to create a path to a majority no matter what happens” because “fundamental freedoms are on the ballot.”
Republican Rep. Josh Kail, R-Beaver and a leader of the Republican House Campaign Committee — on the other side of the ring — said it was “absolutely essential” for Republicans to win back control of the chamber they lost in 2022 because Democrats are interested in political power, not governing.
Leaning into the looming election battle, Kail said, “Let’s rock and roll.”
Representatives elected to the state House serve two-year terms, are paid an annual salary of $106,000-plus and receive per diems, paid mileage and health insurance, among other benefits. The 2024 election will be the second held using a new map of the districts that was approved in early 2022.
Nominating petitions can be filed starting Jan. 23. Candidates’ campaign spending in such races can run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars. Chris Borick, a professor of political science at Muhlenberg College, said that’s sure to happen this year.
“You are going to see those price tags in the half-million dollar range, and that won’t be considered extraordinary,” Borick said. Part of the reason, he said, is that campaigns will be competing for ad slots on television and elsewhere with campaigns in presidential, U.S. Senate and U.S. House races, driving prices higher.
“It is going to get a lot of attention, not just in the state but nationally, as well,” Terry Madonna, a senior fellow for political affairs at Millersville University, said of the Pennsylvania state House battle. One crucial consideration, he said, is how the outcome of House elections will affect Gov. Josh Shapiro, who has gained national visibility as an up-and-coming Democratic leader.
“This is extremely important — make no mistake about it — to the governor and achieving his legislative agenda,” Madonna said.
The latest voter registration data shows many districts where Democratic and Republican totals are within a few percentage points of each other. Those include the 39th District in Allegheny and Washington counties, currently occupied by Republican incumbent Andrew Kuzma, and the 44th House District in Allegheny County, a seat currently held by Republican Valerie Gaydos.
Registration tallies don’t reveal advantages that go to an incumbent, Borick said. In addition, they also do not capture where voters are at the present time — meaning even though someone is still registered with one party, they may be voting a lot for the other. Nonetheless, he said, a close tally is “a pretty good sign that you have a district that is competitive.”
Gaydos, Kail said, is strong in her district. Democratic strategists “have tried going after her in the past” and failed, he said.
The closest House district in the state, according to the latest registration data, is the 120th in Luzerne County. Currently represented by Republican Aaron Kaufer, who is in his 10th year, that district holds 18,198 registered Democrats and 18,197 registered Republicans. That gives each party about 43.7% of the more than 41,000 voters.
In 2022, Kaufer handily defeated Democratic challenger Fern Leard.
Democratic Rep. Eddie Pashinski, who represents the nearby 121st District, said campaigns already have started in his part of the state, even though the candidates aren’t known.
A conservative organization, he said, has already sent out mailers criticizing Pashinski and Jim Haddock, D-Luzerne, in the 118th District.
The first four years of Pashinski’s 17 in the House were spent with his Democratic party in control. “We were able to pass bills for the people we represent,” he said.
The following 12 years, when Republicans were in control, were in Pashinski’s description “terrible” for getting meaningful legislation through.
Last year, Democrats took the lead by a one-vote margin. Pashinski describes the fight to keep control of the House not as one for his party but for “the people of Pennsylvania.”
Control of the House gives the majority party overwhelming power. Banding together, the majority can elect a speaker to set the House schedule, name leaders of committees that vet new legislation, and vote up or down any piece of legislation that reaches the floor.
Pashinski pointed to House Democrats’ 2023 passage of a so-called “red flag” bill that would allow for the temporary seizure of firearms from a person determined by a judge to be a threat to themselves or others. Even though it did not pass the Republican-controlled Senate, Pashinski said, “It never would have seen the light of day if we weren’t in the majority.”
Kail said Republican control of the House has consistently led to passage of bills that make economic sense for the state. He said maintaining power is Democrats’ ultimate goal.
“They are not interested in governing. They are interested in total control,” he said. Their intent, he said, is to “turn the state into a place like California or New York” and not give priority to increased economic opportunities and quality of life.
Kail believes about 20 House districts will be competitive this year. Among those, he said, is likely to be the 72nd District seat of Democratic Rep. Frank Burns of Cambria County. Republicans currently have a 46.6% to 42.0% voter registration edge there.
Rahman would not say which districts his national Democratic organization intends to highlight. The DLCC will soon issue a target list for the state House, he said.
The Pittsburgh-Allegheny County area — along with Philadelphia and some other regions — will get a lot of attention, he said.
“We are still recruiting candidates,” he said. “There are competitive races all over the state.”
The Senate currently is in Republican hands by a 28-22 margin, and half of its members are up for election this year. Rahman said his party’s goal is to at least narrow that margin.
Many of the House districts where the registration split is close are in the Philadelphia suburbs, including Chester, Bucks and Delaware counties.
“Control of the Pennsylvania House will likely go through the southeast and Bucks County,” said Rep. Kristin Marcell, a first-term Republican in the 178th District in Bucks County.
She pointed to the nearby 142nd District, where Republican Rep. Joe Hogan won his 2022 race against Democrat Mark Moffa by a mere 76 votes. In the 144th District, also in Bucks County, Democratic Rep. Brian Munroe beat Republican Todd Polinchock by a 50.8% to 49.2% margin.
In those races, Munroe’s campaign spent about $450,000 to about $216,000 for Polinchock, and Moffa’s campaign spent nearly $400,000 to about $85,000 for Hogan.
Last year, Marcell said, showed that when all House members are elected and in the chamber, “one vote is absolutely everything” if the parties are close in numbers.
“So this year’s election is going to be extremely important,” she said. “We’ll see what happens in the next few weeks in terms of who files.”
