The Penguins pulled back to .500 with their big win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. That put them at a mediocre 10-10-0 through 20 games.
With the win-now moves they made this summer, the Penguins expected to be in a better spot in the standings by now. But given some of their predictable flaws, it was hardly shocking that they sat 11th in the East entering Sunday.
So what’s surprising about their uneven start? And which early trends seem to be sustainable? We analyzed their first 20 games to see how they got here.
SURPRISING: The Penguins power play is one of the worst in the league.
The slow start was understandable given the Penguins were working in a new point man in Erik Karlsson and figuring out if Kris Letang could still fit on their top unit. But the power play has gotten worse as the season went on.
The Penguins have been outscored on the power play over their last seven games. They are 0 for 18 and allowed one shorthanded goal. Their ineptitude cost them in Wednesday’s 1-0 loss to the New York Rangers, prompting coach Mike Sullivan to briefly split his top power-play personnel into two units.
Sullivan and his staff must consider more meaningful changes to help the power play get out of this rut. The Penguins rank 26th in the league at 12.5%.
NOT A SURPRISE: Sidney Crosby and the top line have been sensational.
Even as Crosby inches into his late 30s, you just assume greatness from him until you finally see a reason to expect otherwise. And so far, the 36-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down. Most nights, he is still the best player on the ice. And his numbers are ridiculous. Crosby is on pace for 98 points.
His wingers deserve praise, as well. Jake Guentzel has 23 points, one fewer than Crosby. Hey, remember that this guy had ankle surgery in August? Yeah, it’s easy for forget about that given how good he’s looked. And Bryan Rust, with nine goals, has bounced back from a disappointing 2022-23 season.
Those three have combined for 27 of the Penguins’ 48 even-strength goals.
SURPRISING: The Penguins are actually getting pretty good goaltending.
Yes, Tristan Jarry has had a few frustrating performances. And the Penguins are still waiting for one of their goalies to steal a game when the team has an off night. But many other NHL teams wish they got this caliber of goaltending.
Through 20 games, the Penguins ranked in the NHL’s top six in save percentage, goals saved above expected and quality starts, per Sportlogiq. And Jarry and their backup goalies have combined for five shutouts, tops in the league.
Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg have been more than capable as backups. And don’t look now, but Jarry might be rediscovering his All-Star form.
With strong performances in a few recent starts, Jarry has shot up into the league’s top 12 in goals saved above expected per game and save percentage.
NOT A SURPRISE: Pittsburgh’s questionable depth has cost them games.
Given the top-heavy composition of the roster, president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas had to piece together his bottom six and third pair on the cheap.
The Penguins signed a slew of forwards with NHL experience, essentially chucking a fistful of darts at the board and praying a few would stick. Lars Eller has been solid. Radim Zohorna briefly provided a spark. Up until Saturday night’s win, Noel Acciari was mostly fine but not as noticeable as anticipated.
But newcomers Matt Nieto, Vinnie Hinostroza and Jansen Harkins have not done much, nor have Ron Hextall holdovers Jeff Carter and Alex Nylander.
The third pair? That’s been a problem. And it’s hard to discern whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing that Chad Ruhwedel and Pierre-Olivier Joseph are out.
Given a lack of salary cap space, it’s hard to see how Dubas can tweak the bottom of the depth chart this season without trading away a well-paid winger.
SURPRISING: Rickard Rakell had no goals in 17 games before going down.
And, perhaps even more concerning, he has fewer points than Ryan Graves.
Rakell, who is now on long-term injured reserve, has a history of slow starts dating back to his days in Anaheim. So perhaps he heats up when he returns.
But his slump, which eventually weighed down linemates Evgeni Malkin and Reilly Smith, further added to the burden placed on Crosby and the first line.
NOT A SURPRISE: The Penguins are finishing below expected — again.
One of the many reasons the Penguins missed the playoffs last season was their struggles putting the puck in the net relative to the amount of chances they created. They were second in the NHL in expected goals, per Sportlogiq. But they ranked 16th in actual goals — the biggest discrepancy in the league.
It’s been more of the same this season. The Penguins as of Sunday morning were first in the league in expected goals, averaging 3.66 per game. But they were 15th in NHL scoring at 3.15 goals a game. And that’s with the 10-spot they dropped on the San Jose Sharks still inflating their goal total a little bit.
Perhaps their early finishing numbers are a fluky and the Penguins will experience regression to the mean in a positive way. Getting the power play going would help. But their failure to finish was a factor in a few of their early losses.
SURPRISING: The penalty kill has been one of the team’s biggest strengths.
The thought here was that the kill would be better, with Acciari and Graves signing with the Penguins this summer and Sullivan leaning more on Rust and Letang on the PK this season. But this good, this fast? That was unexpected.
After some expected early growing pains with new personnel getting used to Mike Vellucci’s high-pressure system, they have killed 27 of 29 penalties over their last 10 games — and scored a couple of shorties to offset those goals.
This trend definitely has staying power, especially if the goaltending holds up.
NOT A SURPRISE: The Penguins have had difficulty hanging onto leads.
Given that the Penguins have scored the first goal in an NHL-best 15 games, they should be higher up in the standings. But like a lot of other teams around the league, Sullivan’s squad too often has had trouble hanging onto a lead.
The Penguins have won only eight of the 15 games in which they scored first. And they gave up a third-period lead in three of their losses. The most recent one was Friday in Buffalo, when they coughed up a 2-0 lead in the third.
Since the start of last season, they have lost 11 games when leading after two.
