For the third time in four games, the Bills prevailed to earn a one possession victory.
But, over that span, there have been reasons for concern.
And they recurred in Sunday’s 20-12 win over the Jets at Highmark Stadium.
After Buffalo’s 6-1 start, there were two consecutive losses — Jets and Vikings — followed by the current four-game win streak.
But the numbers are interesting.
Over those first seven games, Buffalo averaged 31 points and outscored the opposition by 20 on average, excluding the loss at Miami.
During the current four-game win streak, the Bills offensive point production is down and points surrendered are up, with the average margin of victory at eight.
And while Buffalo, at 10-3, is back atop both the AFC East and the conference, there’s little security.
If the Bills win out over their final four regular-season games, playoff home field is theirs for as long as they’re alive. But even a single loss can be punitive.
And that’s why a few takes from Sunday’s victory over the Jets are concerning.
THIS HAS become an old song, but the verse is no less relevant.
Buffalo’s running game is still substandard for a playoff team and it almost bit the Bills against New York.
Midway through the fourth quarter they were up 20-7 until a blown assignment by A.J. Klein let the Jets block a punt that mercifully went through the end zone for a safety, rather than being recovered for a touchdown.
After that, when a team normally counts on its running game to run clock to secure a victory, Buffalo conjured two straight three-and-outs to go with the one that preceded the blocked punt.
Ken Dorsey, the Bills offensive coordinator, by explanation, offered a word salad about balance, during that stretch, but clearly the Jets weren’t fooled. They ended up having a potential tying possession in the final minute before surrendering the ball on downs.
It shouldn’t have been that close, and it wouldn’t have been if Buffalo had a running game.
The Bills’ rushing total of 102 yards against New York was one more than their season low in a win over Tennessee. And, for the eighth time in 13 games, quarterback Josh Allen was the team’s leading rusher. In two games against the Jets this season, he totaled 19 carries for 133 yards and three touchdowns. In those same games, Buffalo’s running backs combined on 12 carries for 39 yards in the first meeting and 12 tries for 45 yards on Sunday.
Coach Sean McDermott didn’t exactly blame Dorsey, but he did admit, “We’ve got to look at that and be objective, very objective, about that and be truthful … (about the) offense and making sure we can put the game away.
“We had an opportunity there and that starts with me, putting them in position and then just being fundamentally better in those situations. It’s important that we continue to grow in that area, for sure.”
STILL, there were other issues.
The Jets had the edge in offensive yards, 309-232, first downs, 19-14, owned a nine-minute edge in time of possession and held Buffalo to an anemic 2-of-13 on third-down conversions.
But the most galling statistic, with the Dolphins coming to Buffalo on Saturday night, albeit on another cold snowy day, was that the Jets converted 8-of-17 third downs, four of them 10-yards-or-longer.
Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was candid.
“We weren’t so good on third-and-seven-plus,” he said. “We got them into a lot of third-and-longs and we didn’t win enough of them … we won some but we didn’t win enough, we needed to win more.
“We’ve got to get our (pass) rushing and coverage working together and be able to win when we bring pressure. It’s an area we need to improve and we’re going to need to be better this week against Miami. When you get a team into those long-yardage situations on third down, you need to get off the field. We didn’t do that enough. We won nine different times (on third down) but we didn’t win enough.”
And it’s highly likely the Dolphins noticed.
(Chuck Pollock, an Olean Times Herald senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
