What a difference seven days makes.
A week ago Sunday, there were the Bills at 6-1 coming off a home victory over Green Bay and alone atop the AFC with a game-and-a-half division lead over the Dolphins and Jets with the Patriots even farther back.
Then came Week 9 with Buffalo traveling to the Meadowlands to face AFC East rival New York.
When it was over, the Jets had hung a painful 20-17 loss on the Bills and suddenly the conference race was turned on its ear.
Now Buffalo, at 6-2, is tied for the AFC lead with the Chiefs, though holding the head-to-head edge thanks to its win at Kansas City in mid-October. Meanwhile, besides New York’s victory, the Bills’ other two division foes also won, Miami over Chicago and the Patriots against the Colts.
Suddenly, both the Jets and Dolphins are 6-3, a half-game behind Buffalo, but each owning a head-to-head win over the Bills who are 0-2 in the division. Meanwhile, New England, seemingly doing it with mirrors, is 5-4 and absolutely back in the race at the season’s halfway point.
NO, THE sky isn’t falling for the Bills … yet. But the once seemingly softer part of the schedule no longer looks so friendly.
It starts Sunday when Buffalo hosts the Vikings who have won five straight and, at 7-1, have the NFL’s second-best record. And, oh by the way, Las Vegas, in the early line, still favors the Bills by 8½ points …presumably based on their performance previous to the past six periods.
Buffalo’s 0-2 start in the AFC East is particularly punitive as, down the stretch, they play the Jets and Dolphins again, though both at home, and the Patriots twice and there’s also that game at Cincinnati in early January.
COULD ONE bad loss have possibly caused all this?
Well, yeah.
But it’s not just what’s happened with the standings, but also the manner in which it has occurred.
At one point Buffalo led the NFL in rush defense at 76 yards per game and that was despite surrendering 163 at Baltimore. However, against the Packers and Jets, the Bills gave up 208 and 174 yards on the ground, respectively.
Against Green Bay the excuse was, Buffalo was way ahead and the Packers running the ball ate up the clock while the Bills were playing soft to guard against the pass and blah, blah, blah.
Versus New York, there was no excuse. The Jets’ passing game was spotty, at best, but even at that, they ran with impunity as Buffalo left open rushing lanes and tackled horribly.
To be sure, the Bills were without two key injured starters, linebacker Matt Milano and safety Jordan Poyer, but as the cliche goes “every team in the NFL deals with injuries.”
When asked about Buffalo’s porous rushing defense against the Jets, coach Sean McDermott admitted, “That’s something we have to seriously look at. That’s where the game starts, up front, run defense, you cannot allow a team to run the ball on you like that.”
BUT THAT was only half the issue on Sunday.
The other was the inexplicable regression of quarterback Josh Allen over the last game-and-a-half.
Starting with the final two quarters against Green Bay, and all day versus the Jets, he looked like Josh circa 2018, ’19, his first two seasons, when he struggled with his accuracy. Over that span he’s completed only 48% of his passes with no touchdowns, four horrific interceptions, seven sacks and two fumbles.
And, it’s time to wonder where the Bills would be without wide receiver Stefon Diggs whose 29 receptions and three touchdowns over the past four games have carried Buffalo.
Where are the other two members of the Bills pass-catching triumvirate?
Wide receiver Gabe Davis, who gave Buffalo fans so much hope with his four-touchdown effort at Kansas City in last season’s nightmare “13 seconds” playoff loss, has been just another guy. In the last five games he’s caught 12 balls, hardly what would be expected out of a No. 2 wideout.
And tight end Dawson Knox, admittedly carrying the burden of his brother’s unexpected passing earlier this season, has seven catches in his last three starts, not exactly good numbers for Allen’s supposed safety valve.
THEN AGAIN, maybe those totals are a product of Allen’s recent struggles.
After Sunday’s loss, the discouraged fifth-year QB allowed, “It’s tough to win in this league. (You’re) playing a good team and your quarterback plays like (expletive). (I) made some bad decisions and (there’s) a lot to learn from and grow from. But that’s not the standard we hold ourselves to. That’s not the ball we play.”
To be sure the impact of the defeat wasn’t lost on the locker room.
“This has the potential to be a great, ‘Come-to-Jesus’ moment for all of us,” insightful center Mitch Morse said afterward. “There’s no panic, but we definitely have a sense of urgency that we have to come out with (wins in) these games. For us, it will be taking a little piece of humble pie …”
And Sunday is a good time to start.
(Chuck Pollock, an Olean Times Herald senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
