With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, now is a good time for a monthly check-in on some of the Pirates’ most interesting analytics trends. Here are four to ponder.
Tucupita Marcano — Quietly, the 22-year-old infielder is starting to profile similarly to teammate Ke’Bryan Hayes with a valuable, consistent glove. Believe it or not, he currently ranks fourth on the active roster in wins above replacement, as measured by FanGraphs, at 0.6 in just 28 games through Wednesday.
Only Hayes (2.6), Bryan Reynolds (1.6) and Ben Gamel (0.7) rank higher. And all of them have played at least 76 games. If Marcano maintained his current pace, he’d be worth about 3.4 WAR over a 162-game season. That’s really good — and driven mostly by his defense. His offensive slash line of .239/.300/.359 isn’t dreadful for a middle infielder.
But it certainly isn’t what you’d expect for a player on his WAR pace. That’s how good the defense has been. FanGraphs credits him with two defensive runs saved, putting him on pace for a solid 11.5. For reference, Hayes is at 16 for the season. And his UZR/150, which measures runs above average defensively, is an eye-popping 52.7.
Again, for reference, Hayes is at 5.6. That UZR/150 rating is likely to come back to earth over time. But you get the idea.
He’s looking like a valuable defender at the very least, and one who could be a solid overall player if he can push his offensive numbers just a little bit higher.
Kevin Newman — He entered this past offseason as an obvious trade or DFA candidate after a horrible 2021 in which he posted an OPS south of .600.
Somehow, he survived the offseason as a Pirate, only to lose most of his 2022 to this point to injury. So it was a small surprise that the deadline passed with Newman still holding down a roster spot despite the system’s glut of young middle infield depth. The numbers in his 40 games, however, are worth taking seriously. His slash line of .269/.309/.372 is adequate.
His isolated power figure — which is measured as slugging minus batting average — is .103, his best since a promising rookie campaign in 2019. And he’s also been decent enough with the glove to be worth 0.4 WAR so far, putting him on a 1.6-WAR pace. That’s useful, and perhaps why general manager Ben Cherington was reluctant to give up on him when plenty of evidence suggested he should.
If Newman can finish strong, perhaps he has a future with this team yet.
Bryse Wilson — The overall numbers still aren’t pretty — a 5.86 ERA and a walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP) of 1.52. But that’s mostly the result of a horrible start to the season. Since returning from Triple-A Indianapolis at the start of July, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his six starts.
And like Pirates teammates Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker, he’s seemed to find something with his sinker. FanGraphs’ pitch info values peg its worth at 2.0 runs above average. And not coincidentally, he’s really juiced up his usage of the pitch. He’s throwing it a career-high 34% of the time. That’s helped him push down his xFIP, an ERA predictor that removes defense from the equation, down to 5.06. And his xFIP, which weighs homers more heavily, all the way down to 4.45. So the trends are clear.
The success of the sinker signals that the progress he’s made over the past month and a half is legit. And if he can master some of his other pitches, he’s a credible candidate to be a solid member of the rotation in 2023.
Bligh Madris — His torrid start under the bright spotlight of a promotion alongside Oneil Cruz generated a lot of hope for the 26-year-old. And his recent work at first base has been hailed as a good fit with his 6-foot, 208-pound frame.
But the offensive numbers just aren’t there at the moment.
He’s striking out way too much — 26.1% of the time — for a guy who’s quite old to just now be arriving in the big leagues. And the ISO figure of .099 represents way too little power for him to credibly hold down a corner infield or outfield spot with average defense. The Pirates can indulge Cruz’s strikeout rate because he’s hitting the ball out of the ballpark and driving in runs. Madris, however, will not get that luxury with his limp numbers.
He either needs to get the strikeouts down or the power numbers up to be a viable contender for a meaningful roster spot in 2023.
