Major League Baseball’s offensive problem is obvious.
Teams don’t score enough runs — and hitters don’t make contact often enough — to hold viewers’ attention. The statistical evidence is subtle, but to those that watch the league regularly, the lack of offense is clear.
And, as the sport struggles to fight declining viewership, it may need to act further to help hitters.
I WAS born into the New York Yankees fandom.
Growing up in rural Western New York — where the closest MLB team by travel time plays in Canada — the generationally successful Yankees are the top dog in a diluted MLB market. Still, Yankee Stadium was a six-hour drive from home, and Bronx traffic is quite the contrast from Wyoming County’s rolling hills.
Therefore, my family never made the trip.
That changed three weeks ago, however, when the Yankees were no-hit at home by the Cristian Javier-led Houston Astros.
That Saturday afternoon was the first time my parents had attended a game at Yankee Stadium.
A coincidence? Of course it was.
But, when attending MLB games in 2022, fans are less likely to see offense than has been the case in more than 50 years.
MIDWAY THROUGH the 2022 season, MLB players are getting less hits than they have in the lifetime of many fans.
The league-wide batting average of .242 is the lowest it’s been since 1968 — the “year of the pitcher,” as it’s often referred to. As of July 7, teams averaged 8.14 hits per game.
That figure is higher than in 2020 (8.04) or 2021 (8.13). Otherwise, however, 2022 has seen the league’s least amount of hits per game since 1916 — Babe Ruth’s second full season with the Boston Red Sox.
The league average dropped below .250 in 2018, and after rising to .252 in 2019, has not recovered since. By comparison, that number was .255 a decade ago, and stayed above .260 for 17 consecutive years between 1993 and 2009.
While batting averages have declined, strikeouts have increased.
Strikeouts per game eclipsed eight for the first time in 2016 — six seasons after that number first reached seven per game. Strikeout rate has been increasing for decades, but doing so in a time where hits are at a historic low — and on-base percentage is the lowest its been since 1972 — makes for a lackluster on-field product.
FANS AND analysts will point to several reasons why offense is down.
The most glaring is the specialization of pitching and the increased velocity that has come with it.
In the age of pitch count limitation, MLB teams used 909 pitchers in the 2021 season, a number that hadn’t eclipsed 800 until 2019 and hadn’t reached 700 until 2015. Oh yeah — seemingly all of them throw upwards of 95 miles per hour, as well, with tumbling breaking balls that attack hitters with velocity that would have once made for a quality fastball.
Much has been made of “spin rate,” the rate at which the ball rotates out of a pitcher’s hand. Many pitchers who have focused on increased spin rates have found recent success, a movement led by the late-2010s Houston Astros teams that rejuvenated the careers of Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and others.
Pitchers are also using off-speed pitches more than ever before in 2022. League-wide fastball usage dipped below 50% this season for the first time in the Statcast era (2015), and pitchers are throwing sliders at the highest rate ever recorded.
Gone are the days of “establishing” one’s fastball. In the modern game, pitchers are choosing to throw their best pitch more often and in more unlikely counts, adding to the difficulty of hitting.
THE DIFFERENCE between six and eight strikeouts per game, or between seven and eight hits per game, appears small at face value.
A drop of 10 batting average points only equates to one less hit every 100 at-bats. But to those that watch baseball regularly, anecdotal evidence of an offensive epidemic is available every day.
The Yankees sat atop the league leaderboard in runs scored entering Wednesday evening’s games, but only hit .238 as a team. Try watching the Oakland Athletics, who hit a collectively woeful .212.
The answer to the overarching problem?
MLB isn’t quite sure.
The first steps toward increasing the game’s pace will be seen in 2023. Pitch clocks will be implemented for the first time and a ban will be placed on defensive shifts, requiring teams to keep four fielders on the infield dirt and two infielders on each side of second base.
If MLB feels the need to act further, it may lower the pitcher’s mound as it did after the “year of the pitcher” in 1968, or could move the mound back an additional six inches from home plate.
Some have welcomed the offensive-minded changes. Others feel that hitters simply need to adjust to improved pitching.
Whatever the solution, baseball needs a change. Its product — even to lifelong and dedicated fans like myself — sure can be boring.
(Jeff Uveino, Bradford Publishing Company assistant group sports editor, can be reached at juveino@bradfordera.com)