PHILADELPHIA (TNS) — The Republican Senate primary in Pennsylvania remains wide open even after former President Donald Trump endorsed Mehmet Oz, with Oz and two other candidates forming a clear top tier, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman continues to enjoy clear advantages in the Democratic Senate race heading into the final three weeks before the May 17 primary, according to the Monmouth University survey.
Among Republicans, Oz and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick top the field in a variety of measures, with conservative commentator Kathy Barnette running close behind despite being vastly outspent on TV by her two wealthy rivals.
The poll, conducted April 20-25, is the first public survey done with any real time for voters to absorb Trump’s endorsement of the celebrity surgeon widely known as “Dr Oz. It suggests that while Trump’s support may help Oz with about a quarter of GOP voters, it isn’t enough to decisively shift the race.
And it’s the latest of several surveys to show Barnette emerging as the clear third-place candidate, positioning her to potentially benefit if Oz and McCormick continue tearing one another down — or if GOP voters sour on the two multi-millionaires who only recently moved to Pennsylvania.
Almost a quarter of GOP voters say the Trump endorsement makes them view Oz more favorably. But months of attacks on him have taken their toll, with 37% of registered Republicans viewing him negatively and 42% saying they are not likely or not at all likely to support him.
The survey asked a variety of questions about the candidates and how voters view them, offering a nuanced picture of the race, with Oz leading by some measures, McCormick by others, and Barnette consistently in third. Fewer than 40% of GOP voters have settled on a single candidate they are “very likely” to support.
”This is the kind of environment where a number of candidates could emerge as the nominee,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. “Oz has the highest name recognition but also the highest negatives. If McCormick and Oz beat each other up, though, Barnette could realistically end up on top.”
The Democratic field is more clear: Consistent with many other polls, Fetterman leads by every measure Monmouth surveyed, with U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb second and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta third.
Fetterman has by far the highest name recognition (81%) and a 68% favorable rating. Some 44% of registered Democrats are “very likely” to support him.
He has stronger support from voters who describe themselves as liberal than from moderate or conservative Democrats.
The poll surveyed 407 registered Republicans and 406 registered Democrats and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
