It’s not exactly the best week to be playing the defending Super Bowl champions on their home field with their Hall-of-Fame-to-be quarterback enjoying one of the best seasons of his extraordinary career.
But that’s the position the Bills find themselves in when they visit Tampa’s Raymond James Stadium Sunday afternoon (4:25, CBS-TV, 95.7 FM, 100.1 FM, 550 AM).
Buffalo (7-5), which started the season 4-1 and was the odds-on favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI, has alternated wins and losses for the past eight games and is 3-4 the last seven. The latest indignity was a 14-10 loss to New England in Orchard Park on Monday night, in which the Patriots padded their division lead.
Suddenly, the Bills have a tenuous hold on the AFC’s final wild-card spot and with a loss to the Bucs would tumble out of it and into a gaggle of nine teams bidding for one of those three playoff berths.
Tampa Bay (9-3), meanwhile, with a win and some help could clinch the NFC South title with four games to play.
Tom Brady, the Buccaneers’ 44-year-old quarterback, is the NFL’s least-sacked QB, though he leads the league in passing attempts (42 per game). He also tops it in touchdown passes (34).
And, oh yeah, in his 19 seasons with the Patriots, Brady was 34-3 against the Bills, including 6-0 versus current Buffalo coach Sean McDermott.
STILL, oddsmakers have listed the Buccaneers as only a three-point favorite.
And, despite the Bills recent struggles, some team statistics indicate a close game.
The Bucs lead the league in scoring (31 points per game), Buffalo is fifth (28). The Bills are second in fewest points surrendered (16 per game), Tampa Bay is 16th (23).
Buffalo is fourth in takeaway/giveaway ratio (plus-9), the Buccaneers are sixth (plus-8).
The Bills lead the NFL in fewest yards surrendered (272 per game) but Tampa Bay is second in the league in yards gained (404) and is tops in passing yards (311), though Buffalo is first in fewest yards surrendered through the air (165).
What this game might really come down to is the Bills’ mental state.
In that loss to New England, quarterback Mac Jones threw only three passes on a brutally windy night while the Pats rushed 46 times and their three running backs combined for 217 yards on 38 carries even though the Bills knew it was coming.
Afterward, media and fans were critical of Buffalo’s offensive game plan, a situation exacerbated by McDermott’s seeming disappointment with coordinator Brian Daboll’s play-calling.
DURING the week quarterback Josh Allen tried to make sense of it all.
“I think there’s obviously a sense of urgency of what we need to do (but) there’s no panic in our locker room,” he maintained. “We’re extremely united with what we need to do.
“We’re looking forward to going out there and playing against the defending world champs and the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. We want to prove what kind of team we are, not to you guys (in the media) and everybody else, but to ourselves because we know the type of guys we have in this locker room and the team that we can be.”
He added, “There’s been times throughout our season when we’ve been able to move the ball, but sometimes when it comes down to critical situations we haven’t made the best decisions, we haven’t executed properly like we know we can.
“But I’ve got no doubt about our guys, our playmakers, our line, myself… we’re excited to get back out there on the field.”
ALLEN ADMITTED the task Buffalo faces matching up against Brady, especially without its top cornerback, Tre’Davious White.
“He’s undeniably the greatest of all time and on top of that, he’s a great human being,” he said. “In terms of mechanics and how he plays the game he’s been able to win from the pocket his entire career … decipher defenses before the snap … make quick adjustments after the snap … he knows where his guys are and knows the playbook better than anyone else in the building.
“Mechanically, he’s always working on something and trying to be as sound and as fluid as possible. He can also make all the throws you can ask from a quarterback and it’s really impressive that he’s able to do that. Quarterback is an art and a science, it’s not one or the other, it’s a mixture of both and he’s able to do it better than anybody else.”
AS FOR what it takes for Buffalo’s offense to get back on track, Allen maintained, “It’s 11 guys going out and executing … it’s not the plays, it’s how we execute those plays … decision-making on my part … being smart about when to and not take a sack … when to throw the ball away and ultimately give our guys a chance to make a play.”
He pointed out, “You’ve got to rely on the leaders of this team … and we’ve got some really great ones … dudes and coaches on our staff that have been in these types of situations before and, obviously, panicking is the last thing you should do.
“We have to understand what we’re good at and what we’re not so good at and rely on what we are good at utilizing our playmakers to their strengths.”
Allen, echoing McDermott’s mantra, concluded, “It’s hard to win in this league, there’s ups and downs, there’s injuries, there’s ebbs and flows … you’re faced with a different situation every time you step on the field.
“It’s hard to be perfect in this game, everybody else around you is working hard and growing and learning and you’ve got to be able to do the same thing. That’s something we’re dealing with now and we’ve gotta pull through this rut that we’re in.”