It’s one thing for Bills fans to be giddy about the team’s chances to advance deep into the AFC playoffs a season after their team advanced to within a conference championship game win of making the Super Bowl.
It’s quite another when so many national voices are mouthing the same platitudes for the coming season.
But here’s Buffalo, seen by many as no worse than the second-best team in the American Football Conference, coming off a 13-3 regular season that included the first division title in 25 years, returning 21 of 22 starters, and led by a bona fide candidate for NFL MVP in quarterback Josh Allen.
Oh, it’s a bit different than coronavirus-altered 2020, when restrictions differed from league city to city where some stadiums were empty while others held varying percentages of fans. In almost every venue, visiting teams had a bit of an edge in that lack of dominant crowd noise didn’t disrupt their signal-calling or audibles.
Now it’s a new “normal” year, albeit with an added 17th game, and time for upstart teams such as Buffalo to prove that last season’s success wasn’t circumstantial.
Here’s a look at the 2021 Bills, unit-by-unit:
OFFENSE
Quarterback
The story of the Bills last season began and ended with Allen.
In his third year, he went from a project in search of an identity to a member of the NFL’s elite, finishing second only to Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers in league MVP voting and ahead of a magician in Kansas City named Patrick Mahomes.
That’s what happens when you produce 15 wins (including playoffs) and record 46 regular-season touchdowns (37 passing, 8 rushing, 1 receiving) and set a franchise record for passing yards (4,544).
But there was more.
Both well-liked and respected in the locker room, and unfailingly unaccountable, Allen not only became the team’s unquestioned leader, he also evolved into the face of the franchise.
Then, in the off season, the Bills let backup Matt Barkley leave via free agency, and signed former Bears starter Mitch Trubisky, likely a 1-year rental, but a clear insurance upgrade should Allen be injured..
Grade: A
Running back
It’s an open secret that Buffalo is a pass-first team … but also that it expected more from its running game.
Both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, in their third and second seasons, respectively, have teased with their skills, but neither has taken the full step. Buffalo also signed speedy free agent Matt Breida (Dolphins), but offensive coordinator Brian Daboll would like one, or all, to step up, not only as rushers, but also receivers.
Grade: C
Receivers
Trade acquisition Stefon Diggs was a star from Day 1, finishing with NFL highs in catches (127) and receiving yards (1,535), both numbers also franchise records. He added eight touchdown receptions.
Cole Beasley, of “I won’t get vaccinated” fame, contributed 82 catches for four scores and rookie Gabriel Davis proved to be an inspired draft choice, recording only 35 receptions but seven of them for TDs.
Speedster John Brown left as a free agent, but savvy veteran Emmanuel Sanders was signed in his place.
Grade: A-
Tight end
Not much to say, there are only two on roster: youngsters Dawson Knox and Tommy Sweeney. The Bills seem determined to prove they didn’t make a mistake in taking Knox in 2019’s third round. He’s damned by that fateful ‘P’ word, “potential,” which means nothing more than, “You haven’t done a thing yet.” His most defining statistic is 14 drops in 27 games.
Grade: C-
Line
This is an interesting position as Buffalo’s offense finished in the Top 3 in the NFL in both scoring and yardage.This group permitted only 27 regular-season sacks, though Allen’s elusiveness aided that figure. Still, the struggles of the running game have left some questions, not the least of which is whether guard Cody Ford has played up to his lofty draft selection (2019 2nd round, 38th overall). Otherwise, center Mitch Morse is more than adequate as are tackles Dion Dawkins and Darryl Williams, even though Buffalo used its third- and fifth-round draft picks at that position (Spencer Brown and Tommy Doyle). Guard Jon Feliciano brings toughness and the O-line bench has both talent and versatility.
Grade: B-
DEFENSE
Line
After assessing some of the blame for the Bills’ 38-24 AFC Championship Game loss at Kansas City to a lack of a pass rush, general manager Brandon Beane and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier vowed it would be better.
Sure enough, Buffalo used its first two draft picks on ends (Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham, respectively). They let tackle Quinton Jefferson leave as a free agent and traded end Darryl Johnson to Carolina.
That leaves 11 players on the DL: five tackles (Star Lotulelei, Ed Oliver, Harrison Phillips, Vernon Butler and Justin Zimmer) and six ends (Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison, A.J. Epenesa, Efe Obada, Rousseau and Basham).
The theory is that the rush will improve if the line attacks in waves. Then, too, this unit was only in the middle of the pack against the run.
Grade: C+
Linebacker
As the NFL evolves to be more-and-more pass-oriented, many teams use only two backers on the majority of snaps, and the Bills are one of them.
Middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds with Matt Milano outside are fixtures with A.J. Klein getting somewhat limited time.
Edmunds has become a bit of an enigma, having made the last two Pro Bowls, and he’s still only 23 years old. But by his own admission he probably didn’t deserve last year’s selection with 119 tackles, but only two sacks and no big plays (interceptions or fumbles, forced or recovered).
Milano is a coverage backer specializing in takeaways and quarterback pressures, but isn’t really a run stuffer. Last year, despite limited duty, Klein managed to tie for the team lead in sacks (5) and was second in quarterback hits (9) while forcing two fumbles and recovering one.
Grade: B-
Secondary
Clearly the heart of Buffalo’s defense, Tre’Davious White is an elite cornerback and the safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde is as good as any in the league.
The second corner, Levi Wallace, has fought off challenges each of his four seasons and has yet to lose his job. Taron Johnson, meanwhile, is one of the NFL’s top nickel corners.
This unit ranked tied for seventh in interceptions (15) and tied for eighth in touchdown passes surrendered (23).
The only real flaw is a lack of depth at cornerback and safety.
Grade: A-
Special teams
Coach Sean McDermott puts heavy emphasis on this unit and makes personnel decisions based on it.
Long-snapper Reid Ferguson is one of the best in the game and it could be argued that Buffalo’s most productive draft choice in 2020 was place-kicker Tyler Bass, taken in the sixth round. He replaced the declining Stephen Hauschka and responded with a franchise record 141 points (28-of-34 field goals, 57-of-59 extra points), set an NFL record with three field goals of 54 yards or longer in the first half against Arizona and recorded a Bills record for field goals (6) and attempts (8) against the Jets.
NFL punting leader Corey Bojorquez opted for free agency when a contract agreement couldn’t be reached and Buffalo replaced him with former Dolphin Matt Haack. The wisdom of that switch has yet to be determined.
The Bills took a blow when wide receiver/kick returner Andre Roberts, one of the NFL’s best, signed with Houston as a free agent and sixth round draft choice Marquez Stevenson went on injured reserve. That leaves return duties to the exciting but erratic Isaiah McKenzie.
Meanwhile, the Bills have three players who are on the roster due to their special teams skills: linebacker Tyler Matakevich, running back Taiwan Jones and tight end Reggie Gilliam.
Grade: B
OUTLOOK
Predictions for the Bills’ season record range from 11-6 to 14-3 from virtually every corner.
The way I view it, Buffalo has three brutal road games: Super Bowl participants Tampa Bay and Kansas City, and Tennessee, which beat the Bills by 26 in Nashville en route to the playoffs in 2020. They won’t be favored in any of those games. Then, too, it seems folly to imagine another 6-0 record against the AFC East as the Patriots and Dolphins are improved and there could be a split with one or both. Finally, as with every NFL team, there’s always one unexpected loss.
I’m going with 12-5.