The speculation began last week: What if the Steelers lost to Indianapolis on Sunday afternoon and Buffalo beat the Patriots Monday night in Foxboro, would Bills coach Sean McDermott rest his starters in the finale against Miami with the No. 2 AFC seed assured?
Well, that only half-happened.
Pittsburgh rallied at home from a 24-7 deficit to down the Colts, 28-24, while the Bills did their part, thrashing New England, 38-9, the next night.
Still, there are those who feel McDermott “has a decision to make.”
What decision?
The second seed in the American Football Conference hasn’t been decided.
AS OF NOW, though Buffalo and Pittsburgh have 12-3 records, the Bills hold the edge via tiebreaker, a 26-15 victory over the Steelers in Orchard Park 17 days ago.
But that could change come Sunday.
If Buffalo loses to the Dolphins (10-5) at Bills Stadium and Pittsburgh prevails at Cleveland (10-5), the Steelers, with a 13-3 record, would be the conference’s second seed behind Kansas City, which has already clinched a first-round playoff bye.
Meanwhile, the Bills and Steelers, both division champs (East and North, respectively), are guaranteed home games to start the postseason, but it’s the next round where the No. 2 seed is critical. The team in that spot, if it wins the opener, is at home again for the divisional round. Should Pittsburgh occupy that position, if both those teams prevail in the first round, the Bills would find themselves playing at Heinz Field.
That’s why the idea of McDermott resting his starters against Miami is absurd.
Home field means something, especially in the playoffs. Yeah, most NFL stadiums haven’t hosted fans this season due to Covid-19 protocols, but there’s a continuing drumbeat about 6,700 being allowed in at Orchard Park for the Bills playoff opener, though there’s ample reason for skepticism.
Still, pro football teams are more comfortable playing at home and a second such opportunity would be important for a Buffalo team that has lost its last five postseason road games: Pittsburgh (1995), Miami (1998), Tennessee (1999), Jacksonville (2017) and Houston (2019).
Then, too, finishing as the No. 2 seed would guarantee a meeting with the supposed weakest wild-card qualifier.
As of now, five teams are vying for the other four AFC playoff spots. The Chiefs, Bills and Steelers are in as division champs. Tennessee (10-5) is the South leader, but hasn’t clinched. Indianapolis (10-5) is currently the odd team out. However, if the Titans lose Sunday at Houston and the Colts beat the Jaguars at home, Indy wins the division. Assuming Tennessee and Indianapolis both prevail, the Colts still become a wild card if any or all of the other 10-5s — Miami, Baltimore or Cleveland — lose.
Got that?
THERE are at least three dozen possibilities for Buffalo’s playoff-opening opponent, starting with whether it’s seeded No. 2 or 3 and depending upon Sunday’s results. But the second seed is a far better option given the reward and it’s why McDermott won’t rest his starters, especially since it’s possible the Bills’ initial postseason foe could be Miami as soon as six days later.
Then, too, there’s the little matter of momentum.
Buffalo has now won five straight games, the longest streak since the 2004 team claimed six in a row. And, were it not for the last-second “Hail Murray” heartbreaker in Arizona, the Bills would be on a nine-game win streak, a feat not accomplished by the franchise since the 1964 AFL team opened the season 9-0.
Coaches are disinclined to mess with momentum … especially with something important at stake. And the Dolphins are also playing for plenty as their postseason spot isn’t assured. They’re in if they beat Buffalo, but even with a loss, Miami makes it with losses by any or all of the 10-5 contenders (Ravens, Browns or Colts).
IT’S ALSO worth noting that the Bills have gotten where they are by being aggressive.
And the major reason for their standing among the conference elite is the play of third-year quarterback Josh Allen and how well he’s melded with trade-acquisition wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
In a video conference after the win in New England, Diggs noted, “I feel like we’re still scratching the surface on the potential we have. Josh is still a young quarterback, but he’s playing some elite ball, throwing for 300 (yards) plus, making great decisions, he’s not turning the ball over, he’s running.
“I don’t know the past, I just know Josh right now and he’s playing great football. As a receiver, I just want to give it all I’ve got for him … make the plays for him.”
Diggs added, “You can’t help but be excited. Six months ago, who knew we would be here right now? Nobody would have. I went into this thing like let the chips fall where they lay. Who would have thought it would have gone as well as it has.
“I’m just thankful to be where I am and thankful for the people that I’m around, they make it fun … Josh makes it fun.”
Does that sound like two guys who will be sitting come Sunday?
(Chuck Pollock, a Times Herald senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
