It’s a perfect time for the Bills to get their first sweep of New England in 21 years.
When the Patriots host Buffalo tonight at Gillette Stadium (8:15, WKBW-TV, ESPN, 95.7 FM, 100.1 FM, 550 AM), there’s plenty at stake for the franchise that hasn’t beaten the home team twice in a season since 1999.
Key, of course, is the Bills (11-3) needing a win to remain the American Football Conference’s No. 2 seed heading into the season’s final Sunday.
The Steelers’ impressive rally from a 24-7 deficit to beat Indianapolis, 28-24, not only improved Pittsburgh to 12-3 but also clinched the AFC North title. However, more significantly for the Bills, it kept Mike Tomlin’s team squarely in the race for the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
Buffalo has to win tonight to tie the Steelers’ record and would keep its seeding lead due to the head-to-head victory over Pittsburgh.
And no matter what happens against the Pats, the Bills’ finale next Sunday against Miami (10-5) at Orchard Park and the Steelers’ season-ender at Cleveland (10-5) will have conference meaning.
Then, too, Tennessee (10-4) is also in the mix and could finish as the No. 2 AFC seed, though that hinged on how it fared against Green Bay last night and that game was still being played when this story was filed.
AND WHILE New England (6-8) was eliminated from the playoff race with last Sunday’s loss at Miami, it would be a mistake to assume the Patriots will “mail it in” tonight.
Start with the fact Bill Belichick, one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, knows nothing about going through the motions. One of the league’s best game-planners, he almost beat the Bills on their home field back on Nov. 1, had Pats’ quarterback Cam Newton not fumbled away the potential tying field goal or game-winning touchdown in the final seconds of a 24-21 loss.
Belichick, not wanting to get into a shootout with Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, opted to shorten the game. He installed a run-heavy attack and put in a defense that invited the Bills to use their ground game.
It worked.
New England had the edge in plays, time of possession (31 minutes to 29), offensive yardage (349-339) and passing yards (161-149) and was edged in rushing yardage by a mere 190-188. The Pats held Allen to his second worst yards through the air for the season, third worst completion percentage and one of only two games where he failed to throw a touchdown pass.
THE POINT is, this game isn’t meaningless to Belichick — whose team hasn’t scored a touchdown in the past two games — or the vast number of marginal players populating his roster. A lot of them are playing for their jobs as their coach contemplates major changes in 2021 and that makes for major inspiration.
Indeed, he wouldn’t even commit to Newton as tonight’s starter until late in the week.
Belichick admitted the Pats would “evaluate what the opportunities are” to play some of the team’s younger players. “We have a lot of team questions we need to answer, so I think that will be the overriding thing (and) start from a bigger-picture standpoint.”
Then, too, though the teams are separated by five wins there are surprising statistical anomalies between Buffalo and New England.
The Bills, averaging 29 points a game, have improved by nearly 10 from last season, the most in the NFL. However, the Patriots are giving up an average of only 22, seventh-best in the league.
In takeaway/giveaway, Buffalo is plus-2, New England plus-1.
The Patriots lead the NFL in fewest penalties (52) while the Bills are second worst in the league (96).
And though Buffalo is second-best in passing yards per game (279), New England ranks sixth defending the throw (212).
INJURY-WISE, the Bills are fine and likely to activate wide receiver John Brown (knee) from injured reserve some time today. Reserve tight end Reggie Gilliam (knee/hamstring) is out and backup tackle Ty Nsekhe (groin) is listed as questionable though he fully participated in practice on Friday.
The Patriots, however, seem to be playing Belichick’s favorite game … antagonize the league with the injury report. This week they list 20 (yeah, that’s twenty) as questionable for tonight, including a dozen starters: center Dave Andrews (calf), guard Shaq Mason (calf), tackle Jermaine Eluemunor (ankle), running back Damien Harris (harris), defensive linemen Brian Cowart (back), Lawrence Guy (shoulder) and John Simon (hamstring), linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (shoulder), cornerbacks J.C. Jackson (knee) and Jonathan Jones (neck), kicker Nick Folk (back) and long-snapper Joe Cardona (ankle).
Jones is supposed to replace former Bills cornerback Stephon Gilmore who went on injured reserve with a knee injury and don’t be surprised if virtually all of the “questionables” play tonight.
