It’s a game the Bills are supposed to win.
At 7-3 and atop the AFC East, they’re coming off a bye week and have had 14 days to put the crushing 32-30 “Hail Murray” loss to the Cardinals at Arizona in the rear-view mirror.
Now they’re back in Orchard Park tomorrow afternoon as a 5 ½-point favorite against the 3-7 L.A. Chargers (1 o’clock CBS-TV, 95.7 FM, 100.1 FM, 550 AM).
Buffalo leads the division by a full game, plus the tiebreaker, over Miami (6-4) and has positioned itself well for its first AFC East title since 1995.
But, overlooking the Chargers, could be a costly mistake.
All of L.A.’s losses have been one-possession games and, in many critical statistics, they’re comparable to the Bills … or better.
Buffalo is scoring an average of 27 points per game and giving up an equal number while L.A. is scoring at a 26-point rate and also giving up 27.
The Chargers are third in the league in yards gained (401 per game) while Buffalo is 11th (377).
But the Bills also have some troubling stats, ranking 30th of 32 league teams in penalties (68, nearly seven per game), 28th in rushing yards surrendered (137) and 27th in ground yards gained (98).
WITH A weather forecast of sunny skies and temperatures near 50, tomorrow’s game looms as a shootout between two promising young quarterbacks.
Buffalo’s third-year QB, Josh Allen (6-feet-5, 237 pounds), in 10 games, is completing 68 percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns, seven interceptions, a 103.2 passer rating and five rushing scores.
Chargers rookie Justin Herbert (6-6, 237), in nine starts, also is completing 68 percent of his throws with 22 TD passes, six picks, a passer rating of 104.7 and three touchdowns on the ground.
And that performance hasn’t been lost on Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.
“His accuracy throwing the football downfield has really been off the charts,” he said of Herbert. “Those (receivers) really don’t break stride. They’ve hit a bunch of explosives (long completions), and their underneath work with Keenan Allen really stood out this past weekend against the Jets (34-28 win).
“But those shots they take down the field, (Herbert) does a really, really good job of putting the ball where only his players can make a play on the football. Credit to his accuracy and his arm strength. He’s done a heck of a job.”
Meanwhile, both quarterbacks have excellent receivers.
Allen relies on wideouts Stefon Diggs (73 catches, 906 yards, 4 TDs), Cole Beasley (55, 4 TDs), John Brown (29, 2 TDs), who will miss tomorrow’s game, and rookie Gabriel Davis (19, team-leading 14.5-yard average, 3 TDs).
Herbert has wide receiver Keenan Allen, the NFL leader in receptions (81), good for 835 yards (second to Diggs) and six touchdowns. Tight end Hunter Henry has 41 catches for three scores and wideout Mike Williams owns 29 catches for a team-leading 17.3-yard average with four TDs.
AND UNLIKE the Bills’ non-existent running game — backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have been major disappointments, combining for under four yards per carry and a mere four TDs, one less than Allen, the second-leading rusher — the Rams seem to be on the verge of a return by Austin Ekeler, who has been out since Week 4 after tearing his hamstring from the bone. Before being injured, he averaged over five yards per carry, in the Top 10 among NFL running backs this season.
However, Ekeler’s presence will likely be a game-time decision even though he has resumed practice and that’s important as a key backup, Kalen Ballage, is questionable with ankle and calf injuries.
In addition, two of L.A.’s starters are out: cornerback Casey Hayward (groin) and defensive end Melvin Ingram (knee), a situation exacerbated by the absence of his backup Uchenna Nwosu (shoulder chest), who is also out.
MEANWHILE, the Bills have their own injury issues, losing two starters, one for the game, the other for the season.
Second-year offensive lineman Cody Ford is out for the year due to a knee injury while Brown is out for the Chargers game with an ankle problem.
Ford’s absence will cause the Bills to have their sixth different offensive line combination in 11 games. He had been playing right guard, then switched to the left side when Buffalo waived Quinton Spain. When Ford got hurt, free agent Ike Boettger took over at left guard with former right guard, Jon Feliciano, back from injury, replacing center Mitch Morse, who was benched. Sunday, it appears Morse will retake the center spot with Feliciano taking over for Brian Winters at right guard and Boettger staying on the left side. Interestingly, Buffalo’s tackles, Dion Dawkins and Daryl Williams, on the left and right side, respectively, haven’t missed a start.
Brown will be replaced by Davis.
And, once again, the best advice, with an over/under at 53 ½ points, is to bet the over.