As Bills’ fans were imagining their team’s playoff run in 2020 — especially with Tom Brady having left New England — scanning the schedule they envisioned a sweep of the Jets and Dolphins and a split with the Pats in the division, plus win at Denver and in Orchard Park against the Chargers. That would produce seven of the likely-needed 10 victories for a postseason berth.
Well, it’s Week 12 and Buffalo, coming off its bye, is a solid 7-3 and, come Sunday, the 3-7 L.A. Chargers visit Bills Stadium.
But before that game is added to the “automatic win” list, a slight pause is in order.
Coach Anthony Lynn, the former Bills’ offensive coordinator who coached Buffalo in the 2016 season finale after Rex Ryan was fired, is in his fourth season as the Chargers boss.
He took over the team the year after it left San Diego and even steered it into the playoffs the following season, winning a game before losing to eventual Super Bowl champion New England.
Lynn’s record with the Chargers is 29-29 as of today, but his team’s staggering start had some L.A. sports media calling for his job.
But there’s a caveat.
All seven of his team’s losses have been by a touchdown-or-less, all but two of them by five points or fewer.
And, oh yeah, the Chargers have found their franchise QB for years to come.
IN THE WORDS of Commissioner Roger Goodell, “With the sixth pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Los Angeles Chargers select Justin Herbert, quarterback, Oregon.”
Herbert was the third QB picked last spring with Joe Burrow of LSU going first overall to Cincinnati and Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa fifth to Miami.
Herbert was actually beaten out in preseason for the starting job by former Bill Tyrod Taylor who Lynn coached for two seasons in Buffalo.
However, the rookie took over in the season’s second game under the most bizarre of circumstances.
Taylor led L.A. to a road victory over Cincinnati in the opener but sustained two broken ribs in the process. Then, shortly before the following Sunday’s game against Kansas City – the Chargers’ first-ever at brand new Sofi Stadium – the team doctor was administering a pain-killing injection to Taylor when he accidentally punctured the veteran QB’s lung.
With no notice, and little practice time as the backup, Herbert was thrust into the lineup against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and he’s been there ever since.
And with Burrow being lost for the season last Sunday via a knee injury, guess who has become the odds-on favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Herbert has been spectacular in his nine games, putting up numbers that are very much like those of Buffalo’s Josh Allen.
At 6-foot-6 he’s an inch taller than the Bills’ QB and both are 237 pounds.
Herbert is completing 68 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 104.7 passer rating. He’s been sacked 19 times and has rushed for three scores.
Allen, in one more game, also has 68 percent completions, 21 TDs, seven interceptions with a passer rating of 103.2 He’s run for five scores and endured 20 sacks.
The numbers are scary close, though in his last seven games, Herbert has thrown for 20 scores with only four picks and in five of those starts he’s exceeded 310 passing yards and has at least three touchdown tosses.
WITH THE injury to Burrow, Herbert is on pace to become the best rookie quarterback in NFL history.
Should he continue on his current pace, Herbert will have 397 completions, 4,498 passing yards and 37 touchdowns, all league records for a rookie QB.
In an interview with Seahawks Insider, former pro QB and NBC NFL Insider Chris Simms said of Herbert, “He’s off the charts … he’s already one of the best pure throwers in the game. We know the special ones — Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson — but after that, Justin Herbert is right there for guys that make me go ‘holy crap what a throw, holy cow how did he get it in there, holy cow what great touch.’
“He’s a superstar, he really is. For my money, he’s one of the 10 best QBs in the league already.”
Of course, Herbert has won only two of his nine starts but he took the Chiefs to overtime in his first-ever start, fell to the Saints, with Drew Brees, by a field goal and lost by five to Las Vegas.
And, as Simms pointed out, “He’s not losing those games. He can’t block for the punter. He can’t kick field goals. He can’t throw the ball and catch the ball in the endzone at the end of a game…”
And his next test comes Sunday afternoon against Allen and the Bills.
(Chuck Pollock, a Times Herald senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
