Now is not the time to relax our efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19, according to one Bradford Area High School graduate.
Dr. Dan Reichart, a 1991 graduate of Bradford Area High School, started a project in March to help people understand the impact our actions have on how quickly the disease spreads — and ultimately how many people die.
Reichart is a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
While he is not an epidemiologist, through his profession he has become quite skilled at modeling data. Realizing that exponential growth such as that shown by a spreading virus is difficult to visualize, he and two associates sought to illustrate it. They did that using the rate at which the number of known U.S. COVID-19 cases doubles.
The team had been posting the data to Reichart’s website and Facebook page.
With the start of the new semester this fall, Reichart had announced that he wouldn’t have time to keep up with the postings during the term. However, he is still watching how the pandemic is progressing.
“We had a bit of a respite in August and September, but things started getting worse again about a month ago, slowly at first, but pretty quickly now,” he explained.
Reichart is unsurprised by the recent uptick.
“I am discouraged, but not surprised,” he said. “We are entering the colder months now, which means that people are meeting indoors instead of outdoors, where the risk of transmission is greater. Also, schools are back in session, and although the young are less likely to suffer if they get it, they still spread it the same as the rest of us, putting parents and grandparents at greater risk.”
He understands it is a difficult course to maintain — but it is an important one.
“I know everyone is tired of this pandemic, and worn out. But the next few months will be the most critical before vaccines begin to become available,” he said. “Remain vigilant. Wear masks whenever interacting with people outside your core group, even if family. If 100% of the population did this, religiously, the pandemic would wind down to manageable levels within weeks. It’s those who don’t who have been keeping this alive.”
Though some people point to increased testing as the reason for the current uptick in cases, Reichart said that is only the beginning of the story.
“Increased testing increases the numbers in the short term, but decreases them in the medium and long term, because once a case is identified, they (and others they’ve been around) can isolate so they don’t spread the virus further. Unfortunately, case numbers are growing faster than testing again,” he explained.
One thing Reichart is encouraged about is the new tests that are available now, which he said could be an important tool for keeping the case count from getting too out of control.
“They’re very inexpensive, and you get results back right away,” he said, noting that his son gets tested now whenever he comes home from college.
“If this could be scaled up quickly, it could counter the worst of the ‘third wave’ we’re now entering,” he said.
For those who miss seeing Reichart’s COVID-19 updates, he plans to return to it in December when he has more time, but “I will likely take a ‘quick-and-dirty’ approach,” he noted. “The full-blown modeling we were doing takes a lot of time, and it was difficult to keep up.”
To receive updates on their Facebook feed, people can send a friend request to Dan Reichart; otherwise, they can view the updates on his website at www.danreichart.com.
