Those who love cold air and snow in the northern half of the country will be in heaven this winter, according to the Farmers’ Almanac website, with their long range forecast calling for a “cold winter with normal to below-normal temperatures” in and around the Great Lakes area. Just how accurate is the publication’s forecast though?
The Farmers’ Almanac, which has been in publication since 1818, boasts an 80 percent accuracy in its long-range forecasts, taking things like “sunspot activity, tidal action of the moon, the position of the planets and a variety of other factors” into consideration. The “variety of other factors” is just so secret, that the only person who knows the exact formula is the “Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator” who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee.
Sounds great doesn’t it? Not so much if you look at the study conducted by the University of Illinois, which found that the almanac was only 52 percent accurate, which essentially equates to random chance.
That, added with all the time and editing that goes into a publication and the fact that it was published on Aug. 18, makes early predictions seem unlikely.
The Era contacted meteorologist Steve Travis from the National Weather Service in State College early last month to obtain his opinion of the almanac’s winter forecast. At that time, he stated “it’s too early to put out any kind of seasonal forecast as far as winter goes” and told Era reporters to look at the Climate Prediction Center forecast sometime in mid to late October.
What did Travis think of the formula the infamous “Weatherbee” uses for the Farmers’ Almanac? “We don’t put stake into sunspots,” he said with a chuckle.
Instead, climatologists examine a plethora of data including ice conditions, land conditions, water temperatures in oceans around the world and the current season to create a long-term outlook.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center is currently showing Northwestern Pennsylvania is looking at a 33 to 40 percent chance of above normal temperatures from October through March. Additionally, between October and January, there is an equal chance of higher or lower precipitation, while January through March shows a 33 percent chance of higher precipitation.
The Farmers’ Almanac website can be reached at https://www.farmersalmanac.com/
