HARRISBURG (TNS) — Just think, in four short weeks it’ll all be over but the shouting.
And, if predictions hold, we’ll all be in the middle of the shouting.
About voting irregularities. Election theft. Voter fraud. With mail-in ballots still being counted and election results uncertain.
Or not.
Maybe our 67 counties manage a miracle, run things smoothly, count the votes and call the winner. Never mind it took nearly three weeks for that to happen after the June primary – with half the mail-in votes expected now.
(Then it was 1.5 million. Now we’re looking at 3 million.)
But certainly, we’ll do better this time. And no pressure. Just that we’re the national tell for Campaign 2020: he who wins here wins the White House.
Which makes one wonder, where’s the state as we head to the stretch?
Well, virtually all recent polls of Pa. say Joe Biden leads President Trump.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll puts Biden up 9 points. A new Monmouth poll says Biden’s up 11. A new Reuters poll has Biden up 5. A CBS/YouGov poll and a New York Times/Sienna College poll both put Biden up 7. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday afternoon gives Biden a 13-point edge among likely voters.
Consistent and stable. Is this thing done?
I reached out to national political pundit Larry Sabato, he of “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. His ratings say Pennsylvania “leans” to Biden.
“It’s not done,” says Sabato, “because of the Electoral College. You’d rather be Biden than Trump as of now, but Biden could win the popular vote by even more than Hillary Clinton did (2.8 million) and still lose the College.
“As of today, it doesn’t look that like that’s going to happen, but with almost four weeks left in this crazy campaign in a cursed year, does anyone want to bet the house that nothing else could happen that could matter?”
Uh, no. Pollsters say so much happens every week it’s hard for them to keep up.
Yet the structure of the race, reliant on contests in half a dozen states, barely changes, even after things that “could matter” happen.
For example, Biden got only slight boosts in battleground states after Trump reduced their first debate to an eighth-grade cafeteria fight.
It was juvenile. Trump’s boorish-brat behavior. Biden’s schoolyard retorts. They needed timeout chairs. Facing a wall.
The commentariat said Biden won. But polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida showed little change. Biden still up but not by much.
Same with Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis and hospitalization. Polls in key states reflect no Trump sympathy bump, no great gains for Biden.
In contrast, national polls after these events show big Biden bumps: NBC/Wall Street Journal, Biden up 14; CNN poll, Biden up 16.
But the only polls that matter are in states critical to winning the Electoral College. And they’re essentially static.
As of this writing, the Real Clear Politics average of polling in six battleground states (Pa., Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina) puts Biden up 4.7 points. At the end of August, in these states, he was up 3.
“Nothing much has changed,” says Berwood Yost, director of Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research, “Right now it’s just chipping away at the margins.” He adds, because the number of “truly undecided voters” in those states is so small, almost nothing changes voters’ minds.
Christopher Borick, Muhlenberg College pol-sci prof and pollster, agrees: “Opinions are hardened…I don’t know what could move voters at this point.”
But as Sabato asks, want to bet nothing significant happens in coming weeks?
What if, for any reason, there are no more debates? Or no more Trump rallies?
What if a COVID-19 “second wave” hits, impacting turnout?
We’ve got an election like no other, in a year like no other. Don’t be surprised if we see a result reflecting that.
A blow-out? A photo finish followed by months of legal fights? Post-election games with Electoral College members to override a key state’s popular vote?
How about an Electoral College tie in which the U.S. House elected in November decides the winner in January? Not by a full House vote (currently D-controlled), but by a vote of the 50 state delegations (currently R-controlled).
And if that happened? Pennsylvania, touted 2020 Campaign Decider, could be sidelined. Its House delegation is evenly split, 9 R’s/9 D’s. If it stays that way after November, does Pa. play fierce tug-of-war or simply get no vote?
Lots of questions. But take heart. At some point, it’ll all be over. Hopefully, even the shouting.
(John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com.)
