Eight weeks ago, I wrote a column about the National Football League’s bizarre, upcoming 2020 season.
Part of it centered on the differing responses to the coronavirus pandemic, state-by-state.
It occurred to me that given the NFL’s refusal — read: lack of courage or conviction — to set a league-wide standard, there was a very good possibility that some games would be played sans fans, while others would be contested in at least partially-filled venues.
In my mind, teams which permitted even limited attendance would enjoy at least a degree of competitive advantage.
Statistically, NFL teams enjoy an edge of between 1.5 and 4 points when playing at home, depending upon the franchise.
Last season, four teams were given that 4-point advantage: Green Bay, New England, Oakland and Miami (almost entirely due to weather). The smallest home margin (1.5 points) was shared by five teams: Cincinnati, Detroit, Washington, the L.A. Rams and N.Y. Giants. Buffalo was about in the middle at 2.5.
The home-field edge isn’t a myth, although the difference isn’t as pronounced as some might speculate.
Last season, 48 percent of visiting teams were winners, the second highest since the merger in 1970. But in 2018 the percentage was 40, lowest in the past 16 years. Since the NFL and American Football League combined 50 years ago, the worst winning percentage by road teams was 36 in 1985.
When I wrote the original piece, I was amazed there wasn’t more blowback from franchises whose stadiums didn’t allow fans. In my mind, they faced double jeopardy, not only no home crowd, but also the lost ticket, parking and concession revenue.
Clearly, the NFL didn’t want to stand in the way of teams from fan-permissive states recouping some of their Covid-19 losses … but it did so at the expense of competitive balance.
THUS, EARLIER this week, Bills coach Sean McDermott sounded off on the issue.
“I think it’s honestly ridiculous that there will be, on the surface, (what) appears to be a playing field that’s like that, inconsistently across the league with different away stadiums,” he said during a Zoom call.
“But it is what it is. We can control what we can control. That’s got to be our mindset and that’s how we attack it.”
What brought that assessment on was the fact that Miami, the Bills’ Week 2 opponent, will permit a maximum of 13,000 fans into Hard Rock Stadium this season … more if restrictions are lifted.
That makes five teams which will allow fans to start the season, the Dolphins joining Dallas, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Kansas City with Denver pondering a similar move, but not right away.
That means, besides at Miami, when the Bills travel to face the Broncos on Dec. 20, the stands could also be populated.
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen admitted, “I’d like to say it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t affect us, but going into a road environment that’s going to be different across the league, I think that’s a tough thing to do, as far as game-planning … it’s kind of an unfair advantage.
“But, if you go to certain stadiums, their fans aren’t super loud and you go to a place like Seattle, the fans are extremely loud. You just kind of have to roll with the punches.”
He added, “At the end of the day we’re playing football and we can’t let anything outside of the field affect us. Hopefully, here in Buffalo and Western New York, we can get some fans back in the stadium before the season is all said and done and do a good job of controlling (coronavirus) in this area.”
But right now, per New York State mandate, no fans are allowed at Bills’ games and there’s no indication that decree will change any time soon.
(Chuck Pollock, a Times Herald senior sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
