ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — So where do the Bills go from here?
In a 9-7 season, they overcame some indicting statistical rankings and ended their 17-year playoff drought.
They even had a shot at winning their postseason game, falling Sunday, 10-3, to the Jaguars, who won the South Division in the appallingly weak American Football Conference.
And that’s a key point because, after the Patriots and Steelers, both 13-3, the AFC was a tribute to mediocrity.
The Titans, the No. 1 wild card (9-7), having been outscored in the regular season — as was Buffalo — went into Kansas City Saturday afternoon and beat the West Division champion Chiefs, after trailing by 18 points at halftime.
The Bills, with an advantage in most of the key stats, almost pulled a similar upset in Jacksonville as the second wild card.
Buffalo, tied for its best record since 1999, still needed a favorable break on the tiebreakers to be one of the two teams from the four at 9-7 to grab the fifth and sixth seeds.
And recent history offers a sobering reality about the playoffs, as only four of the 12 teams that qualified for 2016’s postseason made it this year, meaning half the division winners didn’t return.
The Bills, under first-year head coach Sean McDermott and new general manager Brandon Beane, have already overhauled the roster.
Only 23 of the 61 players on Buffalo’s squad, including injured reserve, were with the team last season.
And there’s reason to think that number will shrink further.
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor, fresh from being outplayed by Blake Bortles in the loss to the Jags, seems to have written his ticket out of Buffalo.
Selling an optimistic view of 2018 to Bills fans would be difficult, if not impossible, if Taylor returned as starting QB. And given that they can avoid an $18 million salary cap hit if he’s waived before mid-March, it’s likely he’s history with Buffalo.
But Taylor hardly figures to be the only casualty.
Five of those 23 Bills who preceded McDermott’s hiring are unrestricted free agents.
One is popular defensive tackle Kyle Williams, who turns 35 before next season.
He’s uncertain about retirement but is respected enough as a leader by his coach, that it’s Williams decision whether to return.
Middle linebacker Preston Brown led the NFL in tackles and will surely attract interest for other teams meaning his future as a Bill is iffy at best.
The other three holdover free agents are wide receiver Brandon Tate, veteran linebacker Ramon Humber and tackle Seantrel Henderson.
Tate plays one of the Bills’ most needy positions, and has value as a returner, but his impact this season was limited, at best. Humber had already been beaten out by rookie Matt Milano. And Henderson, after his marijuana suspension that reportedly was a product of his battle with Crohn’s disease, played in only seven games with one start and was inactive for four others. He also has the disadvantage of being a draftee by former GM Doug Whaley, of which only six remain. The others are Brown, guard John Miller, tight end Nick O’Leary, defensive tackle Adolphus Washington and defensive end Shaq Lawson.
Don’t be surprised if Miller, Washington and Henderson aren’t on the roster come training camp.
The other 11 free agents-to-be are Beane-McDermott acquisitions: wide receivers Jordan Matthews and Deonte Thompson, defensive backs Shareece Wright, Leonard Johnson, Shamarko Thomas and E.J. Gaines, running backs Mike Tolbert, Travaris Cadet and Taiwan Jones, defensive lineman Cedric Thornton and quarterback/special teams standout Joe Webb.
Of that group, only Tolbert, at age 32, would seem unlikely to be re-signed. The Bills would figure to try to retain the other 10 — especially Gaines, Johnson, Wright, Cadet, Thornton and Webb — if they don’t choose to sign with other teams.
That leaves 13 holdovers from the previous administration.
Running back LeSean McCoy, who will turn 30, has yet to show decline, nor have defensive end Jerry Hughes, center Eric Wood or tight end Charles Clay.
Outside linebacker Lorenzo Alexander and guard Richie Incognito, who will both be 35, are team leaders and want to return.
Center-guard Ryan Groy remains a luxury, punter Colton Schmidt is coming off a solid year and long-snapper Reid Ferguson has been remarkably consistent.
But veteran tackle Cordy Glenn endured foot and ankle issues and had five starts in the six games he played and was inactive seven times before going on injured reserve. He has a massive contract and rookie Dion Dawkins got 11 starts in that spot and performed solidly. It’s unlikely Glenn returns.
Meanwhile, safety Colt Anderson, a good special teamer and tight end Logan Thomas are role players and the Bills apparently are looking to replace Jordan Mills at right tackle, though he’ll still probably get a chance to compete for the job this summer.
The points is, on offense Buffalo needs two wide receivers who upgrade the position, a couple of linemen and, oh yeah, desperately a quarterback.
Defensively, the Bills could use two linebackers (especially if Brown leaves) and two linemen (should Williams retire).
In short, we’ve hardly seen the end of this team’s major roster turnover … playoff berth notwithstanding.
(Chuck Pollock, a Times Herald sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)