College football’s bowl season is officially in full swing, with every halfway respectable team playing in some of the most obscurely-named bowl games you’ll ever hear (congratulations to Florida Atlantic for winning the one and only Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl).
But there’s been other big news in the world of college football as the postseason rolls on: the early signing period, where hundreds of top recruits from across the country put pen to paper to make official their decision to play big-time college football.
It’s no secret that Division I recruiting, especially in football and basketball, has become a three-ring circus. Coaches send offers to kids before they’ve reached high school. Teams put millions of dollars into high-tech facilities to entice big-eyed teenagers. Fans follow the progress of their favorite school’s recruiting hunt with obsessive excitement.
For more than a decade, the early signing period has been in place as a response to the accelerated and never ending process of recruiting. With the decisions of this past week made official, we know a lot more about what each program’s future might look like.
Penn State fans have to be pleased with the work done by head coach James Franklin and his staff: the Nittany Lions currently have the number four ranked class in the country according to ESPN.
The group is headlined by two of the top 10 high school players in the country: defensive end Micah Parsons (ranked #7 by ESPN) of Harrisburg, and wide receiver Justin Shorter (#8) from New Jersey.
Penn State has also signed 15 four-star recruits already, including top 150 players such as running back Ricky Slade (#18), offensive tackle Nana Asiedu (#129), and wide receiver Jahan Dotson (#134).
Surprisingly, Alabama is not one of the schools Penn State is trailing in the early rankings, as the Crimson Tide currently sit at sixth overall. Ohio State and Texas sit at numbers two and three, respectively, though neither can currently match the top-ranked class of Georgia.
The Bulldogs have already received commitments from seven of the top 50 recruits in the country, including the overall number one player, in-state quarterback Justin Fields.
We haven’t even mentioned defending national champion Clemson, who currently has three of the top five recruits in the country but only registers at number five in overall class ranking.
But it’s worth noting that while most of these four and five-star recruits will suit up for the schools they signed with before long, the future is far from set in stone.
There are a number of factors that can cause a shakeup in a school’s roster: the volatility of the coaching carousel can result in players changing schools when a coach is hired or fired; transfers in general can result in changes that affect the entire outlook of a season (take transfers and Heisman Trophy winners Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield for example).
And of course, there’s the fact that not every huge recruit is going to live up to expectations. There are countless examples of five-star recruits who have been beaten out for starting positions by players surrounded by much less hype. On the flip side, players who receive less attention from scouting services can become impact players: Penn State’s star running back Saquon Barkley, for example, barely cracked ESPN’s top 300 ranking as a member of the class of 2015.
For those who do eventually make an impact, it usually takes a season or two before that’s the case. In college basketball, it’s much easier for first-year players to make an impact. Look no further than Trae Young of Oklahoma or Marvin Bagley III of Duke this year.
College football is a different animal: very rarely will you see a true (or redshirt) freshman make a noticeable impact. It usually comes down to opportunity more than talent in a player’s early years.
As far as class rankings are concerned, they serve more as a lure to future recruits, an opportunity to come to a big program and make their mark. In the end, though, it’s up to the coaches to turn recruits into players.
One last thing to keep in mind as the recruiting process powers on: these are 17 and 18 year-old kids making the biggest decision of their lives. They aren’t professional athletes. So as fans, it’s important to keep things in perspective and not get worked up over the fact that your favorite team got snubbed by a talented youngster.
Getting top recruits certainly helps, but ultimately championships are won and lost on the field.