All right, let’s get the easy (hard?) part out of the way first.
With the Bills’ 37-16 loss to the Patriots on Sunday afternoon at Gillette Stadium plus several other unfavorable outcomes, Buffalo has two paths to ending its 17-year playoff drought.
That, of course, assumes the Bills win next Sunday at Miami.
If they do, one path is for the Ravens to lose at home to the Bengals, who eliminated Detroit from postseason contention yesterday in Cincinnati.
The other path, is for both the Titans to lose at home to Jacksonville and the Chargers to fall in Los Angeles to the Raiders.
Assuming Buffalo wins, if either of those scenarios play out, the Bills would be the sixth seed and the second wild card.
And, get this, if all three of those results transpire, Buffalo would actually get the fifth seed and the first wild card.
In any case, the Bills are alive for a playoff berth heading into the season’s final week for the first time since 2004. That was the year Buffalo was 9-6 and hosting Pittsburgh (14-1) which had already secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Thus, Steelers’ coach Bill Cowher rested most of his starters but a rookie running back named Willie Parker stampeded over the Bills for 102 yards, Jeff Reed kick five field goals and Mike Mularkey’s team was kicked from the playoff race, 29-24.
Of the Bills first playoff chance in the season finale in 13 years, coach Sean McDermott admitted, “We have to look at ourselves collectively in the eye and say, ‘What could we have done better.’ It’s a critical week for us. Give credit to the players, they’ve hung together for us to be in this position going into the last week.”
This trip, Buffalo has to win and needs help, but it still has a reasonable shot, though the Ravens and Chargers figure to be favored with the Jaguars a likely toss-up.
But the Bills could have dramatically improved their lot with a win yesterday at New England.
Don’t be fooled, as the cliche goes, this game was closer than the score.
Buffalo trailed only 23-16 with 9 ½ minutes to play.
But even that score could have been different, but for three dubious decisions, two by McDermott and another by the NFL’s Manhattan replay office.
McDermott’s first questionable decision came with the game tied at 3-3 late in the opening quarter and Buffalo facing 4th-and-2 at the New England 6-yard-line.
The first-year coach passed on a gimme 24-yard field goal and opted to go for it, only to see quarterback Tyrod Taylor sacked.
Normally, the thinking is, even against a team of the Patriots’ stature, don’t pass up a chance to take the lead.
McDermott’s second questionable decision came early in the fourth quarter with the Bills trailing 23-16 and facing 4th-and-1 at the New England 32.
There, rather than going for it, he opted for a 50-yard field goal which Stephen Hauschka missed.
They weren’t bad decisions because they failed, but rather because they were at cross purposes.
If you’re going to eschew a field goal to take the lead, why go for a long one when you only need a yard to keep alive the potential game-tying drive?
Then, of course, there was the officiating controversy of the NFL day.
A seeming 4-yard touchdown pass from Taylor to wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin two seconds before halftime was ruled incomplete, even though replay showed his feet were inbounds and he had seemingly controlled the catch.
Instead, the Bills settled for a field goal and a 13-13 tie, rather than a 4-point lead.
“I saw it as a touchdown and I’m at a loss as to how a play like that can get overturned,” McDermott said. “I thought it was great in terms of management of the clock and being able to execute at a high level in six seconds or less … a good throw and what appeared to be a good catch.”
Buffalo fans already have their conspiracy theories considering last Sunday the Patriots benefitted from the controversy when tight end Jesse James’ apparent game-winning TD reception in the final seconds was ruled incomplete because he didn’t take the reception to the ground. That call helped preserve the Pats’ 27-24 victory and gave New England the advantageous position for homefield throughout the playoffs.
The call, though, was technically correct according to the rule … it’s just a flawed statute.
Sunday’s review was a totally blown call … and had it been ruled properly, the outcome might have been different … though there’s hardly a guarantee.
That said, of all teams, the NFL is hardly colluding to benefit the Patriots, a team that has put the league through the embarrassment of both “Spygate” and “Deflategate.”
(Chuck Pollock, a Times Herald sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)