ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — So here we are at the three-quarter pole of the NFL season and the Bills, at 6-6, are still alive in the playoff race.
Oh, Buffalo’s odds aren’t good to end its 17-year postseason drought — 15 percent at last count — and that’s based on winning at least three of its four remaining games.
The first comes Sunday afternoon at New Era Field when the Bills host the struggling Indianapolis Colts in a game that forecasters predict will feature lake-effect snow squalls.
Optimists see Buffalo’s path to the playoffs as finishing 9-7 — though even with that record the Bills odds improve to only 40 percent — and that’s predicated on winning the last two home games (tomorrow against Indy and next Sunday versus the Dolphins) and then at least splitting the season-ending road games at New England and Miami.
But all that becomes moot if the Bills lose Sunday to the Colts (3-9), one of the NFL’s worst teams.
Indy’s season went south the minute elite quarterback Andrew Luck didn’t heal from a shoulder injury and never played a down. After Scott Tolzien started the opener, former Patriots third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett, acquired in a trade, inherited the job.
His numbers aren’t horrendous — 10 touchdowns, seven interceptions and an 83.1 passer rating in 11 games — and three of the eight losses he’s endured were of the hard-luck variety: 16-13 (overtime) and 20-16 at home to Arizona and Tennessee, respectively, and 24-23 at Cincinnati.
But the wins are hardly noteworthy: Cleveland (0-12), San Francisco (2-10) and Houston (4-8). And Indianapolis has surrendered the most points in the league (330, an average of 28 per game). In addition, only Cleveland (176), the Giants (189), Chicago (191) and San Francisco (202) have scored fewer points than the Colts (205).
However, despite having three more wins than the Colts, the difference in yardage gained and surrendered between Buffalo and Indy is minuscule. The Bills are 26th in yards gained, the Colts are 27th (by less than a half yard) and, in yards surrendered, Buffalo is 27th, Indianapolis 29th.
And cynics would say Indy already has an edge in that at least coach Chuck Pagano knows who will start at quarterback.
Buffalo, not so much.
Starter Tyrod Taylor injured his knee in last Sunday’s 23-3 loss to New England. He missed Wednesday’s practice and was limited on Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, rookie fifth-round draft choice Nathan Peterman took reps with the first team all week and coach Sean McDermott has indicated the starter against Indy would likely come down to a game-time decision.
What’s certain is, if Buffalo loses tomorrow afternoon, its playoff hopes are dashed in all but the most complex and unlikely mathematical calculation.
As Bills running back LeSean McCoy noted, “We can’t lose this game. Our mindset is that we can’t lose this game — we’ve got to win. Us as a team, the only thing we can do is win out, give us a chance to get into the playoffs. Every player wants to just have an opportunity to get to the playoffs, because anything can happen once you get there, and that’s where we’re at right now.”
As for succeeding against Indianapolis, he added, “The biggest thing is playing smart and not turning the ball over. We have to give ourselves a chance to win. We can’t beat ourselves. Once we get this win, then (it’s) how we handle that the next week to stay in this playoff hunt.”
And Buffalo wide receiver Andre Holmes warned against taking the Colts lightly.
“Whoever’s on the other side, they can make plays,” he said. “We have to worry about ourselves … we need to go out there and score points, and play better as a whole offense. They’re going to go out there and put forth their best effort and we’ve got to do our best at executing plays.”
To which linebacker Preston Brown added, “It’s a good Colts team. They don’t have the best record, but they still have talent all over the field. They’ve got a quarterback who can throw the ball deep to T.Y. (Hilton), a tight end (Jack Doyle) that makes great catches underneath and they have a Hall of Fame running back (Frank Gore). It’s definitely a tough challenge but we’re ready for it.”
And McDermott warned against dismissing Brissett as a factor.
“He’s a talented football player, very capable, obviously well-schooled,” he said. “He’s got good coaching behind him, both where he was (in New England with Bill Belichick) and now with the Colts. He’s very capable and a good young talent.”
Then, of course, there’s the wild card of the weather as there are players on both sides who have never played a snow game.
“I think there’s excitement around a lot of things right now and one of them is the potential for snow here,” McDermott admitted. “I know there are a lot of young guys on our team that haven’t been around snow before and they’re excited about it.
“(The weather is) a part of where we are and who we are. To me, it’s embracing that mindset. This is where we are, this is who we are and we take pride in where we live and the elements that come with that.”
He added, “embracing that goes a long way towards our success and what happens out here on Sundays when we get a chance to play in front of our fans. With that comes proper game-planning because of the type of conditions we could face this time of year.”
