PITTSFORD — So now that the shock of Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby being traded has worn off, Bills’ fans have moved on to the next question: How did Buffalo do both short- and long-term?
The first part is easier than the second.
In case you’ve forgotten the specifics from Friday, first the Bills sent Watkins, their No. 1 wide receiver, and a sixth-round draft choice, to the Rams for cornerback E.J. Gaines and a second-round pick. Then, they shipped Darby, a starting corner, to the Eagles for wide receiver Jordan Matthews and a third-round selection.
Let’s start with the short term.
Watkins, when healthy, is an All-Pro-quality wideout, which is why the Bills (over)paid so much to get him … as in a first- and fourth-round draft choice. The key phrase, though, is “when healthy.” The former Clemson star played in only 37 games of his 48 with the Bills, a mere 21 of 32 the past two seasons.
Matthews is a solid, high-character receiver whose pro career has been mostly in the slot. Over the past three years, his stats far outstrip Watkins’. In 46 games he has 225 catches for 2,673 yards and 19 touchdowns. Watkins, in nine fewer games, has 153 receptions for 2,458 yards and 17 TDs.
On the plus side, Watkins averaged over four yards more per catch, on the negative, he missed three more games per season than Matthews.
If he stays healthy, a concern Buffalo’s management clearly had when not exercising his fifth-year option for 2018, the Bills will have lost the Watkins versus Matthews value contest on sheer talent differential.
The Darby-Gaines comparison seems much closer. Darby, a second-round pick in 2015, had a fabulous first season being named Pro Football Focuses’ Defensive Rookie of the Year while also tabbed to the Pro Football Writers of America All-Rookie team. He had two interceptions and his 21 defensed passes were the second-most in a season ever for the Bills. Last year he had no picks and wasn’t the same player.
It’s worth wondering which is the real Darby.
Gaines won the 2015 starting job with the Rams, but before the season began was lost for the year with a foot injury. Still, he has over two dozen starts in his other NFL seasons (2014, ‘16).
Between the two of them, it’s a toss-up who’s better.
But for the Buffalo faithful, the real questions is whether the Bills are a better or worse team since Friday though what will ultimately decide is Watkins’ health.
When asked that question, general manager Brandon Beane, hesitated, “You can make arguments either way. I’m thrilled that, losing a guy like Sammy, we were able to acquire a guy with Jordan Matthews’ skins on the wall. E.J. has started 25 games in this league. He was on the All-Rookie team, so he’s got some pedigree. He’s not walking in here not knowing what to expect.”
When McDermott received the same question, he didn’t even address the cornerback situation, instead noting, “What we’re looking at is still a quality group of receivers when you talk about bringing in a guy like Jordan Matthews. You add him to who’s already here with Anquan (Boldin, a productive veteran signed last week), who was not even on the field (for Thursday night’s preseason opener) and Zay (Jones, this year’s second-round selection) and the rest of the guys … I think we’re moving in the right direction.”
So what about long-term?
With the draft picks the Bills acquired from the Rams and Eagles, plus the first-rounder they got from last April’s opening round deal with Kansas City, Buffalo has two picks in each of 2018’s first, second and third rounds.
The thought is, there’s hay to be made in a quality quarterback draft where as many as five could be taken in the first 20 picks … a crop reminiscent of the famed 1983 lottery when John Elway (No. 1), Todd Blackledge (7), Jim Kelly (14), Tony Eason (15), Ken O’Brien (24) and Dan Marino (27) all went in Round 1.
Next spring that list consists of Sam Darnold (USC), Josh Allen (Wyoming), Lamar Jackson (Louisville), Jarrett Stidham (Auburn) and Josh Rosen (UCLA), all expected to go in the first two-thirds of the opening round.
But while the Bills will likely have six picks in the first 80-some selections of the 2018 lottery, they still have to be used properly.
Just ask Cleveland.
The Browns have had 42 picks in the last four drafts, including eight first-rounders, and still don’t have a franchise quarterback dating back to the enigmatic Bernie Kosar in the early 1990s ands no, I’m not counting Vinny Testaverde.
The point is, while Buffalo has an embarrassment of riches in next year’s draft, success will be measured by what it does with those six key picks.
As Beane pointed out, “I believe in our scouting staff. You have to draft well in this league to win. That’s the financial model … those players are the most affordable. (The trades) helps us to have that kind of currency in the first three rounds at the prices you pay those guys versus getting them in free agency and other avenues.”
And we’ll begin to find out whether the Bills have won long-term come April 26, 2018.
(Chuck Pollock, a Times Herald sports columnist, can be reached at cpollock@oleantimesherald.com)
