Professional sports drafts are an interesting sort of spectacle.
The drama lies not on the field, but on the airwaves and social media, fueled by constant speculation and hand-wringing from nervous fans preoccupied with the future of their favorite teams.
With both the NBA and NHL drafts taking place this week — and with the NFL and MLB drafts already concluded — that tension has been ratcheted up even further.
Over the years, we’ve constantly been told not to place so much short-term emphasis on the draft. We won’t know how things will play out until a few years from now, right?
But more than ever, young players across all sports are making an immediate impact.
The Yankees’ Aaron Judge is making a strong case for both Rookie of the Year and league MVP right now. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott’s historic rookie seasons led a resurgence for the Dallas Cowboys. Auston Matthews quickly lived up to his reputation as the top overall pick in leading the Toronto Maple Leafs back to the playoffs.
Rather than easing their top picks into the big time, teams are expected to play young studs early and often.
With all the anxiety that’s floating around out there as teams make their picks, let me offer some words of wisdom to nervous fans: the guys in charge don’t know what they’re doing either.
For all the years of experience that many front-office people have in the major pro sports, a lot of them don’t have the most sterling track records of success.
Some years, the teams sitting at the top don’t have to think too hard. LeBron James, Andrew Luck, Bryce Harper, and Connor McDavid were all considered can’t-miss prospects, and all four have (for the most part) lived up to the hype.
On the other hand, here are some other players who have been taken number one overall: JaMarcus Russell. Eric Fisher. Anthony Bennett. Bryan Bullington (sorry Pirates fans). Not the type of players who scream “generational talent.”
For one reason or another, scouts, coaches, general managers, and owners become hopelessly enamored with certain players. At the same time, those same front office people undervalue other players who end up becoming stars.
How else do you explain the likes of Le’Veon Bell (48th overall), LeSean McCoy (53rd), Russell Wilson (75th), Richard Sherman (154th), Antonio Brown (195th), and, of course, Tom Brady (199th), falling as far as they did in their respective NFL Draft classes?
Arguably the three best players to come out of the 2009 MLB Draft — Mike Trout (25th overall), Nolan Arenado (59th), and Kyle Seager (82nd) — were taken outside of the top 20 picks. The same thing can be said of the 2011 NBA Draft, when Kawhi Leonard (15th), Jimmy Butler (30th), and Isaiah Thomas (60th) were all non-lottery selections.
It’s a near-certainty that several players from all four 2017 drafts will be prove to be drafted far too low and join these aforementioned players on future lists that read, “Why weren’t they taken earlier?” What’s also certain is that there will be a handful of draft picks that will leave our future selves scratching our heads.
Perhaps the most crushing thing of all when it comes to the draft is missing out on a great player by one lousy spot.
The Jaguars took Blaine Gabbert one spot before J.J. Watt. The Grizzlies took Hasheem Thabeet one spot before James Harden. The Pirates took Jameson Taillon instead of Manny Machado. And the Timberwolves took Ricky Rubio AND Jonny Flynn instead of Stephen Curry.
Now, I’ve thrown a lot of names and numbers around, so it might be reasonable to ask: you just write about this stuff; how many drafts have you been in charge of?
The answer is zero. But then again, I’m not paid to evaluate young players and decide which ones will determine the course of my team’s future — as well as my own.
One thing that has remained constant, however, is that the foundation of championship teams are strong drafts. Those who say that the Golden State Warriors were a hastily constructed superteam should remember that Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green were all home-grown draft picks. The Pittsburgh Penguins got numerous contributions on their run to the Stanley Cup from young players who came up through the farm system.
If there’s any comfort to be found in all this draft craziness, it’s that sooner or later, your team is bound to get it right by the simple law of averages.
Or maybe they’ll just get lucky. As the Penguins have shown three times already, sometimes being lucky is a good first step.
