A new in-depth analysis by the National Association of Counties (NACo) reveals that economic recovery accelerated on the ground over the past year, but challenges remain — especially for small, rural counties like McKean County.
While 2015 was a year of strong growth, the data shows most county economies have not recovered to pre-recession levels on jobs and unemployment. Additionally, between 2009 and 2014, real wage growth has not always kept pace with productivity gains, the NACo report indicates.
The report, County Economies 2015: Opportunities and Challenges, tracks annual changes in 2015 in four key economic performance indicators across the nation’s 3,069 county economies: economic output (GDP), employment, unemployment rates and home prices.
In McKean County, the unemployment rate continues to drop as it has throughout the economic recovery period. Currently, 5.9 percent of the workforce is looking for jobs, but the county’s unemployment rate is just above the average for small counties across Pennsylvania. In 2007, the unemployment rate was at a low of about 5 percent, then skyrocketed to a peak of around 10 percent in 2009 following the economic downtown the year before.
Looking at this data, McKean County Commissioners Cliff Lane, Al Pingie and Carol Duffy drafted a group response to questions submitted to them by The Era seeking their insight as to the specific factors driving these economic changes.
“Much of what we are experiencing in McKean County can be seen in many counties across the state,” they said.
“We believe the decline in the unemployment rates have been largely impacted by the oil and gas industry in McKean County,” the statement reads. However, a decline in the unemployment rate would mean there are less people unemployed and seeking work.
“Also, a majority of oil and gas county economies saw declines in economic output in 2015, so this is not unique to our county,” the commissioners go on to say, echoing the analysis presented by NACo.
NACo states more than half of oil and gas county economies experienced economic output declines. “Economic recovery is spreading more rapidly, but most county economies have not fully recovered,” the organization relates in the report.
The job growth rate in McKean County bumped up just 0.2 percent in 2015, staying relatively steady during the past three years, according to the NACo report.
The report shows the top five specialized industries, by employment, for the county in 2015 were: education & health with 21.3 percent of the workforce or 3,400 jobs; manufacturing at 19.3 percent or 3,100 jobs; government at 15.1 percent or 2,400 jobs; logging and mining at 5.6 percent or 890 jobs; and other services making up 4.3 percent or 690 jobs.
McKean County’s economic output growth rate is down 5.1 percent using inflation by adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — although, it remains up by a total 10 percent from when the recovery period began in 2009, NACo states. The real GDP for the county this past year was $1.7 billion. Meanwhile, median home prices growth rate is up 2.5 percent, steadily rising about seven points since 2009, according to NACo.
The McKean County Commissioners attribute two specific pieces of legislation with economic gains made by the county in recent years.
“Two programs also responsible for the recovery which we have experienced would be the Transportation Act of 2010 and the Act 13 Impact Fees,” they said. “Moving forward we recognize the importance of working closely with our local, state, federal, non-profit and private sector partners to deliver essential services to our residents and to promote economic growth in McKean County.”
To view the graphs and data for McKean County compiled by the National Association of Counties visit http://explorer.naco.org/profiles/countyeconomies/McKeanCountyPA.pdf.
Overall, NACo shows recovery of unemployment and home prices accelerated, but GDP recovery was less pronounced. The data also indicates that nearly half of county economies experienced growth across all indicators, but 36 percent saw declines in economic output (GDP). The majority of the fully-recovered county economies are concentrated in Texas, Nebraska and Kansas. Almost 16 percent of county economies had not recovered on any indicator.
“Despite the economic rebound in some areas across the country, the majority of our counties’ families are still struggling financially,” said NACo President Sallie Clark.
“Counties are the foundation and the building blocks of our community, regional, statewide and national economies. Strong county economies help to create healthy, vibrant and safe neighborhoods by providing vital services for our citizens.”
